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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
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post-4485-0-94306000-1422030120_thumb.gi

 

The CMC and GFS 10 day means look pretty awesome for cold (cross polar flow) with energy hanging back to the southwest for mischief. This would be right about the same time of our next storm system that everyone is eyeing. It would be great if this phased with the Arctic air. Think the ECMWF 10 day mean may be wrong this time. Looks too far east with trough position to me given the sudden drop in the SOI lately and pattern in the Pacific. EPO should be negative with that trough east of Hawaii. I'd like to see better ridging over the Caspian though.

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Portastorm

Portastorm

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We had reports of rain mixing with snow in the western part of Travis County as well as the northern parts of Hays County.  There were also some scattered reports of snow mixing with rain in several parts of town.  Don't worry though ... no need for the National Guard to be called out just yet. ;)

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
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10daymean2015.gif

The CMC and GFS 10 day means look pretty awesome for cold (cross polar flow) with energy hanging back to the southwest for mischief. This would be right about the same time of our next storm system that everyone is eyeing. It would be great if this phased with the Arctic air. Think the ECMWF 10 day mean may be wrong this time. Looks too far east with trough position to me given the sudden drop in the SOI lately and pattern in the Pacific. EPO should be negative with that trough east of Hawaii. I'd like to see better ridging over the Caspian though.

That sounds in our favor, n Texas.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
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12z Euro is a slight improvement? I guess this shouldn't be surprising given how dominate the northern stream has been. Still plenty of time for things to trend towards a fsster kick out.

 

Yeah - also notice how each run of the op ECMWF mean trough position for that time period is retrograding back westward (however so slight) indicative of it being too far east with respect to its own ensembles and, especially, the other two models' means. See what I mean below the 12z graphic of what I posted earlier. The western ridge to me on the ECMWF looks too broad. The GFS and CMC now look even colder, especially the CMC.

 

post-4485-0-05626500-1422045072_thumb.gi

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

attachicon.gif10daymean2015.gif

 

The CMC and GFS 10 day means look pretty awesome for cold (cross polar flow) with energy hanging back to the southwest for mischief. This would be right about the same time of our next storm system that everyone is eyeing. It would be great if this phased with the Arctic air. Think the ECMWF 10 day mean may be wrong this time. Looks too far east with trough position to me given the sudden drop in the SOI lately and pattern in the Pacific. EPO should be negative with that trough east of Hawaii. I'd like to see better ridging over the Caspian though.

 

Be careful if you've used the SOI recently. Tropical Cyclone Niko developed and moved very close to Tahiti over the past few days, which could have lead to a drop in the index to below what it would have read otherwise. It should be back to being a bit more representative within the next few days though.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Yeah - also notice how each run of the op ECMWF mean trough position for that time period is retrograding back westward (however so slight) indicative of it being too far east with respect to its own ensembles and, especially, the other two models' means. See what I mean below the 12z graphic of what I posted earlier. The western ridge to me on the ECMWF looks too broad. The GFS and CMC now look even colder, especially the CMC.

10daymean2015_12z.gif

I usually discount the CMC pretty heavily but a ultimate solution similar to that wouldn't surprise me. The Baja low shearing out with suppression and dry gut punch cold....

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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So looking at a few things tonight (yes, rocking Friday night! I'm just happy all the kids are in bed) and I think  we will be battling the +PNA into February but might see more -AO/NAO.  It will be interesting to see what the models do with next weekends system and there is plenty of time for a Texas winter weather scenario to emerge.  This last system went from long range gang busters, to suppressed nothingness, and finally recovered to be a nice system for all of Texas, even if it wasn't all snow. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Hopefully they still are feeling this way after the 00z runs tonight   :weenie:  :snowing:  Starting at about hour 144 you see that the H5 trends were swinging way back in our favor.

 

From FWD this afternoon on next weekends system:

 

FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS
TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.

 

ETA:  It looks like the 00z GFS drops nearly an inch of liquid at DFW as temps crash from the low 40s to the upper teens... if only! 

 

gfs_asnow_us_39.png

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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Hopefully they still are feeling this way after the 00z runs tonight :weenie::snowing: Starting at about hour 144 you see that the H5 trends were swinging way back in our favor.

From FWD this afternoon on next weekends system:

FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY

ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS

TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.

ETA: It looks like the 00z GFS drops nearly an inch of liquid at DFW as temps crash from the low 40s to the upper teens... if only!

gfs_asnow_us_39.png

Long way to go, but that looks amazing.
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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

Wow...must admit i'm quite shocked with the early wording from the morning AFD's in DFW and SHV for next weekend. Obviously has their attention already.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES
SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN CONUS. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. WLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP THE AREA CUTOFF FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR AND A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE
NORTH IS ABOUT ALL WE WILL GET WITH THIS FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
BE QUITE WARM ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM ONCE AGAIN. VARIATIONS IN TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL GENERALLY BE DEPENDENT ON SCT CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BUT THIS ONE SHOULD HAVE SOME COOLER AIR WITH IT.

PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND BECOME CUT OFF. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S
TX BEFORE EJECTING NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER EVENT FEATURING DEEP RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH QUITE A BIT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIP BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SETUP IS THE INCLUSION OF A VERY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP TYPES NEXT
WEEKEND.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WINTRY
PRECIP TYPES IN OUR AREA DURING THE LAST EVENT DUE TO LOW LVL
WARM AIR. HOWEVER..THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FCSTING A MUCH
COLDER AND DEEPER ARCTIC AIR MASS THAN WITH PREVIOUS EVENTS. THIS
IS STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND LOTS OF VARIABLES ARE UNKNOWN THAT
CAN HOLD GREAT SWAY OVER THIS FORECAST. AS IT STANDS NOW...THIS
WOULD BE THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR WINTER WEATHER IS DEFINITELY IN PLAY. /09/
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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Wow...must admit i'm quite shocked with the early wording from the morning AFD's in DFW and SHV for next weekend. Obviously has their attention already.

I noticed that, did not expect them to mention a system beyond 7 days. Though the models have been consistent in showing the storm so guess they decided to be proactive.
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Srain

Srain

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A chilly morning with heavy frost across NW Harris County will transition to a pleasant afternoon with warming temperatures and sunshine into tomorrow. High clouds with a warming trend should develop next week with a NW flow aloft. Changes begin to develop by mid week as a Eastern Pacific storm organizes and approaches the Baja. The next cold front drops into the Lone Star State on Thursday with increasing clouds and rain chances by Friday. Things get a bit interesting next Saturday as a strong Arctic front arrives with surge of very chilly air. The Baja Storm system begins to spread over running moisture above the cold surface temperatures and it is possible that wintry mischief could develop. The fly in the ointment is just how quickly the Eastern Pacific storm system crosses Mexico and just how cold the surface temperatures are. The GFS paints a wintry mess across portions of our Region as we end January and begin February. The medium range guidance is suggesting that a 1050+mb Arctic High may drop S from Western Canada into the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes. To further complicate the sensible weather there is growing concern that our old friend the Polar Vortex may become established near Hudson Bay allowing a cross Polar flow to develop. It is also interesting to see some indications of a blocking regime establishing across Alaska and the Arctic. The ensembles suggest the very high heights near 4 standard deviations above normal could develop locking in a very chilly pattern into early February.

 

 

 

 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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A chilly morning with heavy frost across NW Harris County will transition to a pleasant afternoon with warming temperatures and sunshine into tomorrow. High clouds with a warming trend should develop next week with a NW flow aloft. Changes begin to develop by mid week as a Eastern Pacific storm organizes and approaches the Baja. The next cold front drops into the Lone Star State on Thursday with increasing clouds and rain chances by Friday. Things get a bit interesting next Saturday as a strong Arctic front arrives with surge of very chilly air. The Baja Storm system begins to spread over running moisture above the cold surface temperatures and it is possible that wintry mischief could develop. The fly in the ointment is just how quickly the Eastern Pacific storm system crosses Mexico and just how cold the surface temperatures are. The GFS paints a wintry mess across portions of our Region as we end January and begin February. The medium range guidance is suggesting that a 1050+mb Arctic High may drop S from Western Canada into the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes. To further complicate the sensible weather there is growing concern that our old friend the Polar Vortex may become established near Hudson Bay allowing a cross Polar flow to develop. It is also interesting to see some indications of a blocking regime establishing across Alaska and the Arctic. The ensembles suggest the very high heights near 4 standard deviations above normal could develop locking in a very chilly pattern into early February.

 

attachicon.gif01242015 00Z Euro GFS CMC Compare test8.gif

 

attachicon.gif01232015 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif

 

attachicon.gif01232015 CPC Temps 814temp_new.gif

 

attachicon.gif01232015 CPC Precip 814prcp_new.gif

 

The main thing that I took away from the 00z Euro/00/06z GFS was that there was a decent trend towards transitioning the energy out of the Baja area a tad faster, esp. on the Euro.  I feel pretty good about the energy getting out of the SW but we will probably see a lot of thrashing around by the models until they get a better handle on the different pieces of northern stream energy.  Also, not at all surprised to see 2003 show up on that list of analogs.  At least we have something to track and not just watching a cutoff spinning in the Pacific, until the models go back to that! 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Without seeing the 0z euro: the models are trolling us.

 

They've moved beyond trolling to just not caring about us anymore....   I'm getting close to throwing in the towel  :cry:

 

We just can't shake this +/neutral AO/NAO setup and now the EPO is refusing to go back negative (models have started backing off taking it back strongly negative).  You know when we last saw +/neutral EPO streaks like this... December and October. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

From very strong cross polar flow and winter storm for a large region, to nothing, other than rain. Only the 0z CMC keeps the cold coming

 

It's laughable, there has been a total flip in the medium range configuration over the north Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska from what the models were depicting just this past Friday night    :ee:  

 

But hey, at least the NE is getting their Blizzard.... Boo!

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