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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The 0z GFS seems to drag cold air down via a strong high east of the Rockies when there's some light precip around in central TX. I'm not an expert by any means in TX winter weather events since I'm from the NYC area, but I would think it's at least a light sleet and ZR threat for a while if the light precip can coincide with the pressing surface cold. Something to monitor for Tuesday. 

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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Got to love the 06z GFS... never kicks the Baja low out and just shears it out

The GFS appears to be completely lost right now. The Euro still looks pretty good for some fun times early next week. I am still expecting a couple hard freezes next week preceded by a good shot at some snow although likely pretty light. I am still looking for the possibility of some kind of surface feature developing and completely altering the expected precip.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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The GFS appears to be completely lost right now. The Euro still looks pretty good for some fun times early next week. I am still expecting a couple hard freezes next week preceded by a good shot at some snow although likely pretty light. I am still looking for the possibility of some kind of surface feature developing and completely altering the expected precip.

I'm slightly more optimistic after reading the FWD AFD from last night but betting on mesoscale features has been a bust so far this winter. The trends in the models just aren't encouraging with the orientation of the western ridge. The 00z Euro continued the trend of expanding eastward and flattening some, but not as drastic as we saw with systems in January.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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12z GFS seems like a step back in the right direction. It actually looked close to being really good, maybe a new trend today? It looks cooler at the surface, especially with the first batch of precipitation but still a real ugly warm nose. However, any backend snow looks to fall with the surface above freezing. Still, an encouraging run :weenie:

ETA: After looking a bit more, it looks like the freezing rain threat is increasing for those north and northeast of DFW.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

12z GFS seems like a step back in the right direction. It actually looked close to being really good, maybe a new trend today? It looks cooler at the surface, especially with the first batch of precipitation but still a real ugly warm nose. However, any backend snow looks to fall with the surface above freezing. Still, an encouraging run :weenie:

 

The problem is what I feared yesterday the trend in the warming at the H85 level so significantly. It was even worse today on both the GFS and ECMWF, now showing H85 temps to be barely below 0°C (from an astounding -13.9°C). Surprisingly the models just can't resolve the effects of the west coast ridging expanding back into Texas deflecting all the cold air to our east. This will be another cold rain event or warm rain event at the rate the H85 temps keep warming on these models.

 

On another note, I don't think I've have ever seen the ECMWF model perform as poorly as it has this year. Were there recent changes to this model I'm not aware of? The GFS has some forgiveness as it was recently upgraded; however, the ECMWF has just been abysmal and its constant flip-flopping is something very uncharacteristic of this model. Anything beyond 3 days out on either of these models is just pure garbage as of late. What is going on?

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

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The problem is what I feared yesterday the trend in the warming at the H85 level so significantly. It was even worse today on both the GFS and ECMWF, now showing H85 temps to be barely below 0°C (from an astounding -13.9°C). Surprisingly the models just can't resolve the effects of the west coast ridging expanding back into Texas deflecting all the cold air to our east. This will be another cold rain event or warm rain event at the rate the H85 temps keep warming on these models.

 

On another note, I don't think I've have ever seen the ECMWF model perform as poorly as it has this year. Were there recent changes to this model I'm not aware of? The GFS has some forgiveness as it was recently upgraded; however, the ECMWF has just been abysmal and its constant flip-flopping is something very uncharacteristic of this model. Anything beyond 3 days out on either of these models is just pure garbage as of late. What is going on?

Below 850mb it is marginal, but still below freezing, what I find amazing is how deep the moisture is reaching up to 250mb where temps are around -50C. If you assume that the low levels are too warm then we really could have a prolonged light snow event nd even if the low level temps are correct I think it is still a snow forecast with NE TX being the hot spot in Texas.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

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Below 850mb it is marginal, but still below freezing, what I find amazing is how deep the moisture is reaching up to 250mb where temps are around -50C. If you assume that the low levels are too warm then we really could have a prolonged light snow event nd even if the low level temps are correct I think it is still a snow forecast with NE TX being the hot spot in Texas.

12z ECMWF continues warming. Does have small window for very light snow or drizzle to reach the ground, as critical thicknesses do dip to 532dm, but surface temps are 34°F to 36°F at DFW with any frozen precip melting on impact and the column begins drying at this point. This will be a cold rain event for the most part. Temperatures continue to warm with every run.

 

It continues with its day 10 garbage.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

12z ECMWF continues warming. Does have small window for very light snow or drizzle to reach the ground, as critical thicknesses do dip to 532dm, but surface temps are 34°F to 36°F at DFW with any frozen precip melting on impact and the column begins drying at this point. This will be a cold rain event for the most part. Temperatures continue to warm with every run.

 

It continues with its day 10 garbage.

The 12Z GFS soundings show at least a few hour period of all snow Tuesday morning across NE TX, coverage will depend on how much lift there is. Surface temps look plenty low (30-34) for it to stick to non-road surfaces and that is taking the model verbatim and we all know that surface temps are often colder than modeled. Right now it looks like a general half inch with an isolated 2 inches.

Further west in the DFW area I am not sure there will be enough lift for more than flurries. 

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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I will check it out while feeding the baby when I get home. I really am liking seeing the models trending towards what I have expected to be a pretty decent event especially for NE TX though much of Texas could see some snow out of it. Gotta watch the Baja low and the potential for a NW Gulf low.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Don't get too despondent, you North Texas folks ... the 18z GFS has come to your rescue! :thumbsup:

 

You could tell that things were trending better by about hour 60 or so and it ended up with better timing and placement of the Baja low and northern stream S/W.  Now to see if that was just a blimp of model randomness or if it will be the beginning of a trend.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Might be off topic. But Wunderground shows total above freezing for the period.

I found WU normally very accurate and consistent in D5. Not sure which model they connecting to...

 

Are you talking about the local forecast? I'm not sure what they use but am guessing it is tied to the GFS but maybe they have an house model?

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

00z NAM

 

Some of this may be a mix of frz.rain/sleet/snow...so don't take numbers literally. But...

 

It's all about the second wave folks....if 18z GFS and new 00z Euro is accurate with it mon pm into Tuesday. We could see a significant winter event across northern areas. If the second wave is suppressed aka first wave stronger and dominate then just minor icing mainly north.

namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

00z NAM

 

Some of this may be a mix of frz.rain/sleet/snow...so don't take numbers literally. But...

 

It's all about the second wave folks....if 18z GFS and new 00z Euro is accurate with it mon pm into Tuesday. We could see a significant winter event across northern areas. If the second wave is suppressed aka first wave stronger and dominate then just minor icing mainly north.

 

 

We needed a Spoiler Alert! before that :lol:  Just got the kids down and was sitting down with a beer to check out the NAM.

 

ETA:  Oh yeah, much better timing and placement of the players, kind of like the polar opposite of the 06z GFS.  The models certainly seem to be trending towards much more favorable interaction between the Baja low and the northern stream S/W. 

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