Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[Srain]

From TXDot 20 miles S of Dumas on US 287...

 

[Srain]

A live shot of Kachina Peak at Ski Taos. They are going to have some real avalanche issues up at 12,400 feet to take care very soon.

 

[aggiegeog]

Hearing more and more reports of snow flakes mixing in in northern DFW as temps fall into the upper 30s. This is a much faster fall in temps than expected so areas of NE TX especially north of I-30 could well see a few flakes later today further south towards the I-20 corridor snow today is less likely. This cooler air could lead to more snow tonight though as there will be less warm air for the atmosphere to have to cool.

[Quixotic1]

Getting reports of rain and snow mix in Denton.

 

This is accurate as we had big slushy flakes as I walked into work.  Seems to have gone back to rain now.  

[Srain]

Interesting factoid from SJT. San Angelo as received 1.26 rainfall this year to date. They did not hit that mark until May 23rd, 2014. Also Abilene as received 1.42 inches of rain this year to date. Abilene did not hit that mark until April 19th in 2014. This weak/neutral El Nino pattern has been beneficial for a lot of Texas that has been very dry.

[Srain]

Midland and Odessa has switched to all snow at this hour.

[Portastorm]

Healthy rains continue to fall here in Austin for about the last 16 hours.  Generally seeing rainfall totals around 2" in the metro area.  Radar still lighting up with light to moderate rains to our west so it should continue a while longer.  Happy to have it!

[Roy]

About the only thing I miss about West Texas is the snow since got at least some in Midland. Coming from the Midwest, I miss my snow in Fort Worth. Haven't seen any flakes mixed in here regardless of radar indications.

[1900hurricane]

This next ob out of KCLL should put us over 2" for the event with plenty more to come. I'm loving this.

[1900hurricane]

We appear to be watching this occur right now. The near surface elevation of the front can be seen pretty well with the heavier echoes near the coast.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1021 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY FROM THE COAST
TO NEAR A KBPT TO KVCT LINE AT 9 AM. THE RAP13 AND HRRR BOTH WERE
DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND BOTH
FORECAST THE MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE NORTH TO SLOWLY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY AS THE MODERATE RAINFALL AREA INCREASES TOWARD THE
COAST.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY WAFFLE A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL
PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ADD A BIT OF
COMPLEXITY TO THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

 

 

[1900hurricane]

Also interesting to see how the maxes of KDP and VIL follow the surface features too. This has been a very nice set of radar images.

 

[bubba hotep]

Hope we do get a big storm out of that. The models will probably lose it this weekend then we will wait to see if it shows back up by the middle of next week as that is the typical pattern of the models.

 

Yep, models flipped back to the persistent positive/neutral AO/NAO look that has plagued us all winter.  Looks like glancing blows of cold driven by the EPO...  until the models tease us again with a great D10 look. 

[bubba hotep]

Also interesting to see how the maxes of KDP and VIL follow the surface features too. This has been a very nice set of radar images.

 

 

 

 

 

Very cool, thanks for posting those images! 

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/22/15 1940Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: G-13 1915Z HEEPS
.
LOCATION...SW LOUISIANA...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MOD/HVY RAINFALL ALONG TX/LA COAST
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BROAD TROF AXIS DIVING SEWRD INTO
MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED UL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM HAS HELPED DEVELOP BROAD
SHIELD OF CONVECTION ACROSS E/SE TX. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION/HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TX COASTLINE WHERE COASTAL FRONT HAS SET-UP
AND GULF MOISTURE HAS POOLED TO THE SE OF THIS BOUNDARY. BLENDED TPW
VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BTWN 1.5-1.75" AND KCRP PW OBS CAME IN AT 1.72"
WHICH IS ABOVE 2 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF YR. SFC LOW CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF KLBX ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST COLD
CLOUD-TOP ENHANCEMENT.  850 MB WINDS AS PER VWP DATA ARE SOUTHERLY
FARTHER INLAND INTO E CNTL TX/LA, INDICATIVE OF 850 MB FRONT A LITTLE
FURTHER N AND W. STRONGEST SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINS ALONG SHORELINE BUT MOD RAINS PERSIST INLAND WITH THE 850
MB FRONT. THIS HAS BEEN EVIDENCED BY PRECIP TOTALS FROM 2-3" ACROSS
MATAGORDA/BRAZORIA/GALVESTON COUNTIES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1945Z-2245Z... HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS SW IMPULSE MOVES TO THE E, THIS WILL PUSH
DOWNSTREAM PRECIP FURTHER INTO LA. HEAVY RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN 1"/HR
RATES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG UPPER TX COAST AND INTO
SW LA WITH MORE MOD INTENSITY RAINS ELSEWHERE.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX/SW LA COAST WITH THE STRONGEST
SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE LIMITED CAPE VALUES IN AREA AS
NOTED BY MOST RECENT WPC MPD.
 

[wxmx]

Yep, models flipped back to the persistent positive/neutral AO/NAO look that has plagued us all winter.  Looks like glancing blows of cold driven by the EPO...  until the models tease us again with a great D10 look. 

The Euro develops a series of fortified walls in it's last 2 runs over the West coast, bouncing back two Baja lows like they were July EPac 'canes. If the second low can't dig a tunnel underneath that second ridge (which should build north, not east), it will be a snoozer for our region, indeed.

[aggiegeog]

The Euro develops a series of fortified walls in it's last 2 runs over the West coast, bouncing back two Baja lows like they were July EPac 'canes. If the second low can't dig a tunnel underneath that second ridge, it will be a snoozer for our region, indeed.

The Euro looks odd and it is not supported by its ensemble or the GFS. The GFS is very progressive throughout it's run. The ensembles of both are likely closer to what can be expected.

[Srain]

Sleet reported a bit ago in Sonora.

[Quixotic1]

 

Check out this loop.  Can't remember seeing storms heading NE while the back end showers are headed to the SW.  Pretty cool.  

[aggiegeog]

FWS_loop.gif

 

Check out this loop.  Can't remember seeing storms heading NE while the back end showers are headed to the SW.  Pretty cool.  

Interesting, guess there has to be some mesoscale low over DFW.

[1900hurricane]

I imagine the SW moving stuff is occuring at a lower level and is shallower than everything else moving off to the northeast.

[Srain]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

 

Fairly impressive coastal low that affected the region yesterday is now moving east with the main upper trough approaching from the west.

 

A very wet day across the region on Thursday with rainfall totals along the coast ranging from 3-5 inches and 2-2.5 inches over our northern counties. Period of strong surface winds from late morning to late afternoon with gust to near 50mph along the coast.

 

Main upper level trough is approaching from SW TX this morning where light rain is changing over to light snow. Rainfall coverage has been increasing over SE TX as lift increases ahead of this feature. Temperatures in the low 40’s over the region, but profile remain warm enough to preclude any threat of snow or sleet. Rain chances should begin to subside by early afternoon as the trough axis passes overhead.

 

Stretch of very nice weather is in store for the region Saturday-Thursday as the upper pattern takes on a trough in the eastern US and ridge of high pressure over the SW US. Skies will clear tonight leading to a sunny and mild weekend with temperatures in the 40’s for lows and the 60’s for highs. Ridging and sunny skies next week will lead to a gradual warm up with highs breaking 70 by Tuesday and lows warming to near 50 by Thursday.

 

Next cold front and SW US storm system expected to affect the region starting next Friday. Will need to keep an eye on just how much cold air may come southward with this storm as some of the models have been suggesting the potential for winter weather over a good part of TX next weekend.

 

Selected Thursday Rainfall Totals:

Hobby Airport: 2.35 (new record for 1-22). Previous record was 1.95 in 198
Galveston: 3.09
College Station: 2.97
Brazos River at West Columbia: 5.08
Bay City: 5.13
Alvin: 3.60
Caldwell: 3.68
Texas City: 4.96
Port Bolivar: 3.20
La Marque: 3.15
Angleton: 2.83
Palacios: 2.72
Friendswood: 2.48
Caldwell: 2.91
League City: 2.06
Navasota: 2.08
Sugar Land: 1.18
Victoria: 1.08
Tomball: 1.00
BUSH IAH: .87
Wharton: .39

[bubba hotep]

Hopefully this will be one of those times that the Euro trends towards the more progressive GFS.

[aggiegeog]

I sure hope the moisture and the cold can sync up next weekend, this has been the winter of the very cold rain.

[Roy]

Hope the GFS is right with snow around the start of the month. The cold just hasn't been able to arrive in time this winter. 

[Srain]

The only reports I see of any winter precipitation this morning is across the Edwards Plateau and mostly in Kerr County where some light snow has been falling. Little in the way of accumulation with most of it happening on elevated and metal surfaces.

 

Edit:

Some reports in Travis County coming in now of -rn/-sn mix

 

 

[Srain]

Reports of sleet/rain and snow mix 4 miles West of Fredericksburg in Gillespie County. Also large snow flakes reported in Kerrville at this time. No accumulation though.

[vwgrrc]

Hope the GFS is right with snow around the start of the month. The cold just hasn't been able to arrive in time this winter.

Oh... That looks kinda similar to what you described. A lot of precip but warm on Saturday, cold arrives one Sunday with little precip left.

But who knows it's 7D away

[1900hurricane]

After looking at CC products out from KEWX, I'm not surprised to see some snow mixing in over the Edwards/Balconies areas. Radar-indicated melting layer is at 500 feet or less west of the radar site!

 

Here's some more radar porn.

 

 

 

 

Surface temps appear to be the only limiting factor for falling snow directly beneath the upper low.

[Srain]

All snow falling in Harper...Gillespie County at this time.

[Srain]

Report: 19 miles E of Rocksprings in Real County...2 inches of snow on the ground. Slushy roads in this area of the Edwards Plateau.