11 replies to this topic

[Ian]

Via NWS this morning for DC: IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT FOR THE PERIOD JUN 1-AUG 17 AT REAGAN NATIONAL THIS IS THE WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD...A RECORD THAT WAS SET JUST LAST YR. FOR MAX TEMPS THIS YEAR IS 90.8 VS 90.6 LAST SUMMER. AVERAGE TEMP THIS YEAR 81.8 VS. 81.7 IN 2010. this is how we closed out last yr

 19  88  72  80   3   0  15 0.00  0.0	0  4.0 10 340   M	M   6 8  	21  10 20  92  71  82   5   0  17 0.00  0.0	0  4.6 10 170   M	M   3    	14 140 21  88  74  81   4   0  16	T  0.0	0  7.6 15 130   M	M   7    	18 140 22  89  76  83   6   0  18 0.15  0.0	0 10.2 20 260   M	M   8 3  	25 250 23  86  72  79   3   0  14	T  0.0	0  8.2 17  60   M	M   7    	21  60 24  75  68  72  -4   0   7	T  0.0	0 10.5 18  50   M	M  10    	23  50 25  83  66  75  -1   0  10 0.00  0.0	0  6.7 14 330   M	M   8    	18 330 26  87  68  78   2   0  13 0.00  0.0	0  6.6 16 350   M	M   5 8  	20 350 27  83  66  75  -1   0  10 0.00  0.0	0  5.0 10 180   M	M   4    	14 180 28  89  68  79   3   0  14 0.00  0.0	0  3.0 13  50   M	M   4    	15  60 29  92  70  81   6   0  16 0.00  0.0	0  3.9 12 170   M	M   0 8  	14 170 30  96  73  85  10   0  20 0.00  0.0	0  4.4 14 350   M	M   0 8  	20 350 31  96  71  84   9   0  19 0.00  0.0	0  4.1  9 160   M	M   1    	13 140 

Without looking at the numbers we need, I'd guess we'll fall just short based on what it looks like we see the rest of the month? Gotta transfer my spreadsheet to new computer.

[Ellinwood]

Ian, on 19 August 2011 - 05:37 PM, said:

Without looking at the numbers we need, I'd guess we'll fall just short based on what it looks like we see the rest of the month? Gotta transfer my spreadsheet to new computer.

It'll be very close... may not make it on the highs, but lows consistently in the lower 70s will boost our average temp. The only wild card is the potential tropical rain at the end of the month.

[Ian]

For DCA...

Target = 14,951 total degrees JJA to exactly match last year. Could be as low as 14,949 to round (if I'm using sig digits right).

Thru today = 13,083 (81.8 to date, .2 above last year)

AVG to finish would yield an 81.2


This is daily.. I think LWX just does monthly avgs which might lose a smudge of data but should be close enough and this is more accurate.

[BethesdaWX]

we won't break the record

[Ian]

Looks like about 81.1, so solidly #2.

All about July really.

[RodneyS]

Ian, on 19 August 2011 - 11:22 PM, said:

I think LWX just does monthly avgs which might lose a smudge of data but should be close enough and this is more accurate.

Using daily averages, it looks as if the DCA 2011 summer average will finish at about 81.09, compared to last year's summer average of 81.24. However, the 2011 daily high summer average looks as if it will be about 90.08, barely lower than last year's daily high summer average of 90.13. In fact, if today and tomorrow were to average a high of 88 (as opposed to the forecast 85), this year would be the hottest in terms of daily summer highs.

This raises the issue of LWX's use of monthly, rather than daily, averages to compute seasonal averages. Daily is more accurate, particularly for the winter average, because February has only 28 or 29 days each year, as opposed to 31 in both December and January. To be accurate, LWX should redo the historical seasonal averages to reflect daily averages.

[Sparky]

It just didn't feel like a record breaker to me and nothing like last summer.

[WVclimo]

Sparky, on 30 August 2011 - 10:36 AM, said:

It just didn't feel like a record breaker to me and nothing like last summer.

Same here. The Metro areas were really hot, but here it wasn't too bad at all. 19 days of 90+, which is well below normal, and none since August 2nd. 12 of those came in a 16-day period the last half of July. Last year I had 49 days of 90+.

[Ian]

WVclimo, on 30 August 2011 - 11:48 AM, said:

Same here. The Metro areas were really hot, but here it wasn't too bad at all. 19 days of 90+, which is well below normal, and none since August 2nd. 12 of those came in a 16-day period the last half of July. Last year I had 49 days of 90+.

At this point it's safe to say even here that last yr was probably considerably "worse" when it comes to longevity. June and Aug were warm but not necessarily notably so (other than the fact that they both at 100+, June's tying for warmest in June). July was just insane...

[Bob Chill]

Sparky, on 30 August 2011 - 10:36 AM, said:

It just didn't feel like a record breaker to me and nothing like last summer.

A lot of the early heat didn't come with a lot of humidity. The humiture factor made a fair portion of this summer's heat quite bearable.

[Fozz]

Why couldn't last winter be the second snowiest?

[Fozz]

Sparky, on 30 August 2011 - 10:36 AM, said:

It just didn't feel like a record breaker to me and nothing like last summer.

This month has been much more "normal". July was pretty awful.