am19psu Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 It certainly doesn't look like its tropical by any stretch, but an argument could be made that its trying to make a run at subtropical status. Latest TWO raised the probability to 20% but prospects doing look good beyond 24 hours. In addition, NHC mentioned winds are now below gale force, so in the unlikely event it does become subtropical, it might not even be a STS. Subtropical storms have to have at least some symmetry. This is a convectively enhanced baroclinic low. I mean, look at the MWs. It clearly has a temperature gradient across it. On IR, you can see the typical occluded structure straight of Bjerknes. This isn't an Andrea situation, at least not until the upper low cuts off, which isn't modeled at all. Until it does that, it's just an extratropical low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Whew...I can get on with my day now. But...there are two lows swirling around a big low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 But...there are two lows swirling around a big low... Well as long as Avila isn't worried, I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Subtropical storms have to have at least some symmetry. This is a convectively enhanced baroclinic low. I mean, look at the MWs. It clearly has a temperature gradient across it. On IR, you can see the typical occluded structure straight of Bjerknes. This isn't an Andrea situation, at least not until the upper low cuts off, which isn't modeled at all. Until it does that, it's just an extratropical low. Can you point me to a link where you are getting your microwave imagery? I had previously been using the NAVY site, but its been down recently. Just looking for a new resource The multiple vortices are pretty cool to look at on visible this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Can you point me to a link where you are getting your microwave imagery? I had previously been using the NAVY site, but its been down recently. Just looking for a new resource The multiple vortices are pretty cool to look at on visible this morning. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 https://www.fnmoc.na...bin/tc_home.cgi Thanks! I see what you mean about that temperature gradient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Looks subtropical if you ask me. Might even be trying to get there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 The warm core in this thing is really shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 This is Otto(2010) as subtropical depression 19 or whatever number it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Can you point me to a link where you are getting your microwave imagery? I had previously been using the NAVY site, but its been down recently. Just looking for a new resource The multiple vortices are pretty cool to look at on visible this morning. Local forum tropical met knows someone at NRL Monterey, their backup generators are down, and they don't want to risk a hard shutdown if power goes down. They'll be down until backup power is available again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 lol this thing still exists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 lol this thing still exists? 18Z SHIPs is initialized with a 35 knot storm. It takes an entire 48 hours to bring it to 0 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 18Z SHIPs is initialized with a 35 knot storm. It takes an entire 48 hours to bring it to 0 knots. SHIPS also says it's not annular and has little chance of RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Making a comeback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Making a comeback? Shear is just too strong for 91L to have any sort of chance. It won't be that much longer before we'll have a 'real' tropical system to track, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Shear is just too strong for 91L to have any sort of chance. It won't be that much longer before we'll have a 'real' tropical system to track, though. I didn't want to imply that it had any chance of tropical development. I just wanted to draw people's attention to the relative increase in convective activity, as there could be rain and t-storm implications for the Bahamas and possibly S. FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I didn't want to imply that it had any chance of tropical development. I just wanted to draw people's attention to the relative increase in convective activity, as there could be rain and t-storm implications for the Bahamas and possibly S. FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Interesting... doesn't really have a shot at development, but this certainly looks a lot more like a tropical wave with some pulse convection in the general vicinity. Florida looks to have some rainy days ahead. The Bahamas are taking a direct hit.. could severely impact those tanners on the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Interesting... doesn't really have a shot at development, but this certainly looks a lot more like a tropical wave with some pulse convection in the general vicinity. Florida looks to have some rainy days ahead. The Bahamas are taking a direct hit.. could severely impact those tanners on the beach. Yes, I was surprised to see that swirl near Andros Island. No shot at development, like you said but any added rain it can bring to Florida is welcome in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 It's going to recurve around the subtropical high before it brings anything decent to FL. If anything, the enhanced moisture will add to the flash flooding threat in the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 sign of the pattern for cane season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 If this keeps up, it will be an active naked swirl season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It's going to recurve around the subtropical high before it brings anything decent to FL. If anything, the enhanced moisture will add to the flash flooding threat in the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Looking like a pretty solid call right now! Lots of moisture is currently streaming upwards through the Carolina Coast, no doubt on a beeline for the Mid-Atlantic over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Looking like a pretty solid call right now! Lots of moisture is currently streaming upwards through the Carolina Coast, no doubt on a beeline for the Mid-Atlantic over the next 24 hours. Something actually to investigate? http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~dvandyke/fl/ncep4kmnmm/00z/mslp10mwind.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Something actually to investigate? http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~dvandyke/fl/ncep4kmnmm/00z/mslp10mwind.html 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 2010? April Fools! Actually, I'm just a dolt........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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