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Ivanhater

Invest 91L

56 posts in this topic

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_al912011.invest

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201104201829

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011041918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011

AL, 91, 2011041918, , BEST, 0, 214N, 576W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 91, 2011042000, , BEST, 0, 221N, 581W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 91, 2011042006, , BEST, 0, 226N, 589W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 91, 2011042012, , BEST, 0, 228N, 598W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105,

AL, 91, 2011042018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 608W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

latestATL.png

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259

WHXX01 KWBC 201901

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1901 UTC WED APR 20 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110420 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110420 1800 110421 0600 110421 1800 110422 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.2N 60.8W 23.7N 62.5W 24.1N 64.0W 24.1N 64.6W

BAMD 23.2N 60.8W 24.8N 57.4W 27.5N 55.8W 30.5N 55.2W

BAMM 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 61.1W 25.6N 61.6W 26.9N 61.7W

LBAR 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 60.6W 25.3N 60.7W 26.7N 60.5W

SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS

DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110422 1800 110423 1800 110424 1800 110425 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.6N 65.3W 21.8N 68.2W 21.3N 73.0W 21.9N 77.7W

BAMD 33.5N 53.2W 41.4N 38.1W 50.1N 21.3W 55.1N 12.1W

BAMM 27.2N 61.8W 24.8N 63.6W 23.3N 66.8W 23.3N 69.4W

LBAR 28.1N 59.9W 29.9N 56.4W 30.1N 51.8W 30.1N 50.2W

SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 60.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 22.6N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 57.6W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 105NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 105NM

$$

NNNN

Still waiting for the HWRF run that shows a major menacing South Florida.

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Lemonized

000

ABNT20 KNHC 201935

TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN

PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS

INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS

IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL

OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN

ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND

FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER

FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...

OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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This is like the first GFS run that shows 2" of snow for Philly on October 3rd

Yes, you can also be sure the NAM will be mentioned in this thread before the day is out.:whistle:

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the best thing is it wont just beebop out to sea like the 2010 season. this season will be much more interesting.

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the best thing is it wont just beebop out to sea like the 2010 season. this season will be much more interesting.

Have you looped the satellite on it? It is pretty disorganized, and has fairly warm cloud tops. That, and April tracks of weak barely/non tropical systems, is that really correlative to JAS storms?

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Would be happy if it at least brought us some T-storms to South Florida. The winter weather here is about as exciting as living in a desert.

Amen to that. Last time I got a Tropical Storm (Bonnie), I didn't even know about till it had gone past since I didn't have internet. I just thought it was a windy day. So weak!

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Convection still looks pretty meager, but I'd say if its got a shot to become anything more than a weak non-tropical low, the next 12-24 hours will be its shot. It doesn't look half bad if you forgive the fact the deepest convection is only around -50 degrees C.

szimtg.jpg

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Convection still looks pretty meager, but I'd say if its got a shot to become anything more than a weak non-tropical low, the next 12-24 hours will be its shot. It doesn't look half bad if you forgive the fact the deepest convection is only around -50 degrees C.

Or that it has a cold front :devilsmiley:

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Laugh at it all you want... but 91L wants some attention. Seems like the ULL just to the west is providing some temporary relief from the shear.

3508j8o.jpg

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I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it if I was a mariner, but this is not even close to being tropical.

It certainly doesn't look like its tropical by any stretch, but an argument could be made that its trying to make a run at subtropical status. Latest TWO raised the probability to 20% but prospects don't look good beyond 24 hours. In addition, NHC mentioned winds are now below gale force, so in the unlikely event it does become subtropical, it might not even be a STS.

14.phase1.png

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Avila doesn't seem to be too worried about a need to classify this disturbance...

Whew...I can get on with my day now.

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