Sluggo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the 6z nam is so much colder than the RUC at the time frame. It keeps CLT to GSP close to -3 for a while and subzero the whole event through 24 more hours.. It also upped qpf. The RUC changes upstate over around 7 pm, but I guess most of the good stuff will be over by then anyway. I get the feeling all models have been playing catch up to this storm for days now. Just makes me think that someone in western SC and southern NC will also top the 12" mark. I'm pretty sure part of Ne GA will do it. (thats my groundzero) Excellent call on this one, Robert....I tip my hat to ya...YOU DA MAN!! I know where to get my weather now. Awesome, awesome analysis and forecasts!! :arrowhead:Been looking at Doppler 5000, AccuWeather and NOAA Composite Loop reflections. Appears that the snow will most likely start when I arrive at work in RTP around 7:30 PM. LOL!! It's an hr drive there and and hr back in good weather and traffic. Gonna be fun this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So the dry air punch showing up on the radar is fine? I assume redevelopment like Burrel was taking about... Strong, I believe that is correct. Radar returns are already redeveloping as far back as Birminham now! I believe that will happen most of the day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So the dry air punch showing up on the radar is fine? I assume redevelopment like Burrel was taking about... I guess so... we are suppose to under a lull and its snowing harder than I've seen it yet for this event... so the radar might be playing some tricks. Temp: 21.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Weird modified discussion from RAH since verbatim 1-3" snow and 0.1" ice are not WSW criteria and is the same as what was forecast earlier under the WWA. That's cause they're busy and this one didn't match the models just quite like they thought, especially w/ the timing. We have cloud cover now and it'll most likely start snowing in the RTP w/in 3 hrs.....that's gonna throw their predicted totals off to to the high side IMHO. Then we have the ice forecasts.......just checked closings....Wake Co Schools are going to dismiss 2.5hrs early......they're gonna get caught w/ their pants down on this on for the schools unless they update before the buses start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ok, am i reading the new gfs and nam snowfall maps wrong? showing what appears to be 8-12" (i think that the new red contour is a foot? lol) btw, watching news (who kjnew it was on at 430 am) basically no one in nga is going anywhere this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah. I was just looking at that. But, I see upped totals and dry air.. These rates are great! 2 1/2" since just before 3am Strong, I believe that is correct. Radar returns are already redeveloping as far back as Birminham now! I believe that will happen most of the day today We will see. I got a spike of dry air cutting the county in half West - East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 441 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 NCZ073>075-083>086-101200- STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...TROY...SOUTHERN PINES... WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD 441 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD AND BECOME MODERATE IN INTENSITY THROUGH SUNRISE...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS OF NC. A QUICK ONE INCH TO LOCALLY NEAR TWO INCHES OF SNOW MAY COAT AREA ROADWAYS THROUGH 700 AM...PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND WADESBORO AND ALBEMARLE TO ROCKINGHAM AND SOUTHERN PINES. VISIBILITY IN SNOW WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE. THE EXPECTED QUICK DETERIORATION OF ROAD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT...AND STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...CNTRL GA...CNTRL SC CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 100806Z - 101400Z SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE PHASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING AND SLEET LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD AVERAGE 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR. A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES DEVELOPING INLAND ATOP A COLD AIR MASS. AT 07Z...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM MGM TO JUST N OF MCN AND INTO CNTRL SC. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WET BULB ZERO LINE WAS MUCH FARTHER S SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THEREFORE...AREAS CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...WITH AREAS ALONG AND JUST N OF THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE EXPERIENCING THE LONGEST DURATION. TO THE N...SNOW ACROSS NRN GA AND INTO CNTRL SC MAY EVENTUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SLEET AS A WARM NOSE FORMS ALOFT...WITH ACCUMULATING SLEET POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WXII Austin, says 1-3 closer to 1 3 inch amounts souther piedmont. Talked about how it's weaking and all the precip drying up in N.GA so I may not get a inch He showed Mt.Airy 1/2 inch snow accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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