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Does NYC and LI really have a chance for 6" of snow Friday 1/7/11 ?

Mikehobbyst

By Mikehobbyst,
in New York City Metro

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
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I can't believe a norlun is going to hit us now, and possibly a miller B MECS next Wednesday. What's going to happen? Are we going to add an additional 15 inches of snow within the next seven days? 6 inches from the PV norlun storm and 8-12 inches from the miller B next week. Best winter from and since the late 70's coming true. Do we go below zero for several night lows the second half of January ? Siberian express to seal the deal for best January ever in terms of cold and snow ? Why are some of the models not as strong with the Miller B next week and going OTS ? Think it comes back on later runs once the PV storm is out of our way. Comments ... Thanks.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

I can't believe a norlun is going to hit us now, and possibly a miller B MECS next Wednesday. What's going to happen? Are we going to add an additional 15 inches of snow within the next seven days? 6 inches from the PV norlun storm and 8-12 inches from the miller B next week. Best winter from and since the late 70's coming true. Do we go below zero for several night lows the second half of January ? Siberian express to seal the deal for best January ever in terms of cold and snow ? Why are some of the models not as strong with the Miller B next week and going OTS ? Think it comes back on later runs once the PV storm is out of our way. Comments ... Thanks.

You answered your own question regarding your bolded statement. The persistent block is holding out until the last moment with weak easterly flow and retrograding systems on the northern end of the vortex. Recent runs stagnate and stretch the vortex over the Great Lakes which acts to suppress the upper level height field and weaken warm air advection/upper level ridging ahead of the potential Miller B storm. Weaker amplification and less development shunts the warm front S and the system not only tracks across a weaker baroclinic zone which results in less intensification, but it takes a farther S track and heads OTS with minimal CAA to enhance the thermal gradient along the Gulf Stream--a necessity for coastal development.

The 6Z GFS is trying to weaken the vortex over the Lakes, but it has been having issues with that feature. 0Z was very suppressive while the last 2 ECM runs were very suppressive. The 50 member ECM ensemble is very similar to the ECM op and has a suppressed height field with weak OTS development.

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phlwx

phlwx

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Anyone getting their hopes up on getting sig snow from a Norlun is setting themselves up for heartbreak. Best thing to do is look for a modest 1-3 event and count it as a bonus if you get more.

Yep...someone probably has a shot at getting more than 1-3/2-4 but the majority of the area will probably not unless the norlun (if it does set up) sets up right over NYC.

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Parsley

Parsley

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Yup 1-3", anything 4+ consider a bonus. Media is going to hype snow totals in the wake of the blizzard up around NYC. Not saying 6-8 inches can't fall somewhere (and it likely will), its just going to be the exception, rather than the rule in my opinion.

If I was doing a map, I would still include a 3-6" area somewhere in the tri-state area (northern Jersey to Hudson Valley to Long Island?) just to hint at the higher potential in portions of the region.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

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It's amazing how after a big storm forecasters can become so bullish. People have known about this storm since Monday saying oh big storm coming. It's really crazy how people react once you've had a big storm. My biggest issue is most of the snow is during the day and temps are likely to be above freezing for much of the event. We're just not in a terribly cold airmass right now. I mean upper 20s to near 30 at night and near 40 during the day is NOT cold for January.

I would go with 1"-3" with localized amounts up to 7".

I can't believe local news stations are calling for 3"-6" and 4"-7".

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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

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I can't believe a norlun is going to hit us now, and possibly a miller B MECS next Wednesday. What's going to happen? Are we going to add an additional 15 inches of snow within the next seven days? 6 inches from the PV norlun storm and 8-12 inches from the miller B next week. Best winter from and since the late 70's coming true. Do we go below zero for several night lows the second half of January ? Siberian express to seal the deal for best January ever in terms of cold and snow ? Why are some of the models not as strong with the Miller B next week and going OTS ? Think it comes back on later runs once the PV storm is out of our way. Comments ... Thanks.

why don't you just read the Potential Threats thread instead of posting an IMBY thread? Then you would know not to EXPECT 6" even though it is a possibility.

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted

Both GFS and NAM (and 0z Euro) are picking up on the inverted trough feature. The NAM with higher resolution is picking up on more QPF and I think there is a good chance of that verifying. The devil is in the details on where it sets up. I think the 2 - 4 / 3-6 as an average across the region is a good call and that someone will get 6 - 10 if this comes to pass as modeled on both the GFS and NAM. Main point is, I wouldn't look at GFS QPF and say that anyone who mentions more than 2-4 is crazy. Both models see the same thing, its just that the GFS is looking through foggier glasses. A lot of the focus in the recent modeling runs is across western LI over to NNJ and the lower Hudson Valley. In that scenario, I can see it raining on eastern LI, although everything but the boundary temps look quite cold throughout.

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