Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Next Tues-Wed: First Clipper threat...looks like a classic "center-jump" (CJ ) scenario probably too far east for US but still a low threat.; SE MA and possibly RI may get a nice surprise. More significant threat late 6th thru 8th. I like the GEFS scenario of what appears to be a discontinuous retrogression of the PV to north of the Gr. Lakes. Ridge amplification along the WCUS. Digging short waves betwix the two above mentioned features. Could see a strong clipper digging SSE west and south of Chicago 6th-7th followed by either some sort of a CJ or 2ndary low along ECUS vcty Carolina's possibly GA. Owing to the complex nature of the pattern including the retrogression and bifurcated flow the models will likely have all sorts of issues with timing of the short-wave features and even the long-wave feature (how far west will the trough axis retrogress before it stops and anchors. In addition La Nina systems have a tendency to trend W and NW with time. I would think that the models won't resolve this system until < than 72 hours out...possibly even clueless 'til 48 hours or less. The 12z ECEM and the 144hr OP UK are similar. The ECEM actualy has some decent ridging out west between the WCUS and Rockies. This event has my curiosity peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 18z GFS: Not a clipper really...drops into the 980s as it moves off the coast. It's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Nice write up Andy. Numerous models have some threat in about week so let's hope it works out. Agree the clipper probably won't be much here (nuisance stuff) as they tend to be very dry dropping SE in the dead of winter and moisture starved until they can tap the Atlantic to the east. It seems to me our clippers "on steroids" tend to come in later winter. I can recall a few 6"+ clippers in March and April. I mean 6"+ without much help from the Atlantic. Obviously we have had many CJ clippers that dumped on us, athough are a lot tougher to come by for ENY versus NE that sticks out into the Atlantic..... Looking further out I think we are getting a pretty good signal that much colder air wants to shift to our side of the pole again. This chilly air for the next 10 days in pedestrian in nature..homemade in NA and/or modified Pacific stuff. Then we face the question, does it dump into the west first with another torch/reload or not... Once we get that cold regime settled in and sinking south over the CONUS maybe we see the situation riper for some SW flow events..but hey that is two weeks + away. Next Tues-Wed: First Clipper threat...looks like a classic "center-jump" (CJ ) scenario probably too far east for US but still a low threat.; SE MA and possibly RI may get a nice surprise. More significant threat late 6th thru 8th. I like the GEFS scenario of what appears to be a discontinuous retrogression of the PV to north of the Gr. Lakes. Ridge amplification along the WCUS. Digging short waves betwix the two above mentioned features. Could see a strong clipper digging SSE west and south of Chicago 6th-7th followed by either some sort of a CJ or 2ndary low along ECUS vcty Carolina's possibly GA. Owing to the complex nature of the pattern including the retrogression and bifurcated flow the models will likely have all sorts of issues with timing of the short-wave features and even the long-wave feature (how far west will the trough axis retrogress before it stops and anchors. In addition La Nina systems have a tendency to trend W and NW with time. I would think that the models won't resolve this system until < than 72 hours out...possibly even clueless 'til 48 hours or less. The 12z ECEM and the 144hr OP UK are similar. The ECEM actualy has some decent ridging out west between the WCUS and Rockies. This event has my curiosity peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Saw "snow starved NYS" in the title of the thread and got curious about how bad it's been for you folks on the south side of the Lake. I'm doing reasonably well at about 75% of normal thanks to early month LES, but there are areas just to my southwest, including Pearson Airport (the official climo site for Toronto) that are around ~20% of normal. 18z GFS looks interesting with "clipper" parade. Hopefully January will see things turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The people on the NYS side of Lake Ontario can answer better than I over here....but my impression is that it would be fully dependent on whether they have been in a decent LES belt. SYR obviously has been nailed by that. Otherwise synoptic snow has been almost non-existent, except for the coastal low that clipped far ENY. Saw "snow starved NYS" in the title of the thread and got curious about how bad it's been for you folks on the south side of the Lake. I'm doing reasonably well at about 75% of normal thanks to early month LES, but there are areas just to my southwest, including Pearson Airport (the official climo site for Toronto) that are around ~20% of normal. 18z GFS looks interesting with "clipper" parade. Hopefully January will see things turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderqueen Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The people on the NYS side of Lake Ontario can answer better than I over here....but my impression is that it would be fully dependent on whether they have been in a decent LES belt. SYR obviously has been nailed by that. Otherwise synoptic snow has been almost non-existent, except for the coastal low that clipped far ENY. Here near Ithaca we are a bit snow-starved. In the hills we got some snow off the Finger Lakes last week which made the trails skiable from Xmas until yesterday, but it is all just about gone. In town there was never more than a dusting. We've been driving to the LES belt to ski (Bear Swamp, Winona, Virgil) but that snow is used up and melting fast. After this thaw we'll have no skiing until the next event. Two weeks is a long time to wait. I sure hope the clipper, or whatever it is, will bring us some white ground again soon, and skiable snow, though I know not to hold my breath. Heading to the Adks next weekend to ski the big mountains. At least there's snowmaking at the resorts. It's going to a be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Snow starved here in Central NY. A few piles here is all that's left. Pretty amazing. 23" so far for the season which is a bit less than about 30 miles to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderqueen Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Snow starved here in Central NY. A few piles here is all that's left. Pretty amazing. 23" so far for the season which is a bit less than about 30 miles to my east. 23" is respectable...I think we've had less than 8" total...with all those half in dustings and a couple of 1-2 inchers off the finger lakes...I think the southeastern hills of Tompkins county may have totalled over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I have had 21" , but only 9" of it was synoptic snow. The rest was LES scraps and when you are talking 20-1 or more ratio stuff it sublimates so fast that you feel like it wasn't a very quality 21". Around here you got to have one good dump from (preferably a Nor'easter) to set down a good base for the x country ski trails etc. Such has not been the case so December FAIL. Hopefully the late week event will mean business for us. 23" is respectable...I think we've had less than 8" total...with all those half in dustings and a couple of 1-2 inchers off the finger lakes...I think the southeastern hills of Tompkins county may have totalled over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Saw "snow starved NYS" in the title of the thread and got curious about how bad it's been for you folks on the south side of the Lake. I'm doing reasonably well at about 75% of normal thanks to early month LES, but there are areas just to my southwest, including Pearson Airport (the official climo site for Toronto) that are around ~20% of normal. 18z GFS looks interesting with "clipper" parade. Hopefully January will see things turn around. 56 inches fell on my house during December. I have virtually nothing on the ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 56 inches fell on my house during December. I have virtually nothing on the ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I have had maybe 14 inches all season, today just standin water on semi frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The people on the NYS side of Lake Ontario can answer better than I over here....but my impression is that it would be fully dependent on whether they have been in a decent LES belt. SYR obviously has been nailed by that. Otherwise synoptic snow has been almost non-existent, except for the coastal low that clipped far ENY. Yup, that's the story. This December rivals December 2006 as far as lack of synoptic snow is concerned, although December 2006 was an absolute torch so it's easier to comprehend. 8.1" of my 9.6" on the season has been LES scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 56 inches fell on my house during December. I have virtually nothing on the ground right now. lol, 20:1+ ratio LES fluff doesn't make for very effective snowcover. But it sure is pretty when it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yep it's pretty but the way things blow around here it's poof fast! A few of those days I woke to a beautiful new 3 inches of fluff etc. on the back lawn, but once the wind came up it was gone in a couple hours time. 3 inches of LES snow compresses to a few drifts here and there truthfully. I have one part of the lawn as you go in the driveway that is wind sheltered and that is still white with several inches. lol, 20:1+ ratio LES fluff doesn't make for very effective snowcover. But it sure is pretty when it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 18z GFS: Not a clipper really...drops into the 980s as it moves off the coast. It's something. I'll beg to differ its a clipper or NW flow low that CJ's/redevelops. Anytime a low from the NW or W moves either perpendicular too or at an acute angle to the Appalachians you get either a "CJ" or 2ndary re-development. Its all based on conservation of absolute vorticity. Still game on and based on he 12z OP runs of the EC UK and GFS. Maybe a two shot event with overruning precip across NY (esp WNY & CNY) with primary..perhaps extending to ENY. ENY and possibly CNY thenhave best shot with 2ndary low. Nice write up Andy. Numerous models have some threat in about week so let's hope it works out. Agree the clipper probably won't be much here (nuisance stuff) as they tend to be very dry dropping SE in the dead of winter and moisture starved until they can tap the Atlantic to the east. It seems to me our clippers "on steroids" tend to come in later winter. I can recall a few 6"+ clippers in March and April. I mean 6"+ without much help from the Atlantic. Obviously we have had many CJ clippers that dumped on us, athough are a lot tougher to come by for ENY versus NE that sticks out into the Atlantic..... Looking further out I think we are getting a pretty good signal that much colder air wants to shift to our side of the pole again. This chilly air for the next 10 days in pedestrian in nature..homemade in NA and/or modified Pacific stuff. Then we face the question, does it dump into the west first with another torch/reload or not... Once we get that cold regime settled in and sinking south over the CONUS maybe we see the situation riper for some SW flow events..but hey that is two weeks + away. Happy New Year, Rick. Glad you liked the write-up. Looking better to me but then again its like D+5.5-6.5 away. Here near Ithaca we are a bit snow-starved. In the hills we got some snow off the Finger Lakes last week which made the trails skiable from Xmas until yesterday, but it is all just about gone. In town there was never more than a dusting. We've been driving to the LES belt to ski (Bear Swamp, Winona, Virgil) but that snow is used up and melting fast. After this thaw we'll have no skiing until the next event. Two weeks is a long time to wait. I sure hope the clipper, or whatever it is, will bring us some white ground again soon, and skiable snow, though I know not to hold my breath. Heading to the Adks next weekend to ski the big mountains. At least there's snowmaking at the resorts. It's going to a be a long week. I think Mother Nature may bless you with some natural powder or snow anyway next week's end/weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I would be happy with a white ground again, keeps my 2 labs clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I would be happy with a white ground again, keeps my 2 labs clean. Mine decided to take a plunge for New Years in my pond. Just a little ice on the shallow end now. He's got that awesome "dirty pond" smell right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Oh man that must have been cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'll beg to differ its a clipper or NW flow low that CJ's/redevelops. Anytime a low from the NW or W moves either perpendicular too or at an acute angle to the Appalachians you get either a "CJ" or 2ndary re-development. Its all based on conservation of absolute vorticity. Still game on and based on he 12z OP runs of the EC UK and GFS. Maybe a two shot event with overruning precip across NY (esp WNY & CNY) with primary..perhaps extending to ENY. ENY and possibly CNY then have best shot with 2ndary low. You can add the ECEN and GEFS too to this above scenario. Anoamly 850 winds are trending to around -2 perhaps a bit lower in 5.5-6 days ahead, 1000mb PWATS going to near +2 in same time period. GEFS trough at 500 hPa around 85W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'll beg to differ its a clipper or NW flow low that CJ's/redevelops. Anytime a low from the NW or W moves either perpendicular too or at an acute angle to the Appalachians you get either a "CJ" or 2ndary re-development. Its all based on conservation of absolute vorticity. Still game on and based on he 12z OP runs of the EC UK and GFS. Maybe a two shot event with overruning precip across NY (esp WNY & CNY) with primary..perhaps extending to ENY. ENY and possibly CNY thenhave best shot with 2ndary low. With last night's 18z, I was more so thinking that the low itself didn't originate in Alberta, but sat over the upper lakes and eventually dropped down. Even today's 12z GFS had the low start deepening over Marquette. Not like January 2005 or December 31, 2008 (Buffalo's surprise super-clipper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 48" here this year will only 10" of synoptic snow since October. On a quiet night you can hear that FES settle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I guess that is mainly a difference in semantics ...whether we want to call a given low an Alberta Clipper or a Manitoba Mauler, etc. End result re: the CJ idea would be similar as it jumps the mountains heading SE or ESE. And Happy New year to you, Andy and everyone else here. With last night's 18z, I was more so thinking that the low itself didn't originate in Alberta, but sat over the upper lakes and eventually dropped down. Even today's 12z GFS had the low start deepening over Marquette. Not like January 2005 or December 31, 2008 (Buffalo's surprise super-clipper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 You made a great choice of locale there. I never realized that northern Chenango County did so well in LES. But then again my sister always used to drive home from SUNY Cortland via 41 to 23 etc... and she had some interesting rides. Once she flipped my parent's old Subaru somewhere northwest of Norwich and had to hike to a farmhouse for help. She was mainly ok, but car was totalled. 48" here this year will only 10" of synoptic snow since October. On a quiet night you can hear that FES settle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 You made a great choice of locale there. I never realized that northern Chenango County did so well in LES. But then again my sister always used to drive home from SUNY Cortland via 41 to 23 etc... and she had some interesting rides. Once she flipped my parent's old Subaru somewhere northwest of Norwich and had to hike to a farmhouse for help. She was mainly ok, but car was totalled. This year has been exceptional for LE. Rt 23 near the old Camp Pharsalia always seems to waste a few cars every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 models continue to suggest event at the end of the week, but lots of possibilites and moving parts out there, ranging from heavy to light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 As it says first call may tweak (up) a few bands after 12z data comes in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wx- that's a very reasonable map. Are you at all concerned with the 0z GFS and some of the WRF models that push that strip of heavier snow northeast and run it through western mass, albany and then the s/w adk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wx- that's a very reasonable map. Are you at all concerned with the 0z GFS and some of the WRF models that push that strip of heavier snow northeast and run it through western mass, albany and then the s/w adk? Simple answer: Yes that's why I may add some pending 12z data. So far our in house meso model (which has done quite good) on the (few) snow events thus far this winter ISN'T showing the trend northeast yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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