IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Temperatures are forecasted to warm significantly with a ridge overhead and a storm system moving in from the west. Will the pattern allow the trough to move far enough east to push the ridge offshore and bring significant precip to the area next weekend?? If so the snow melt combined with the rain could lead to significant flooding the first week of 2011. Please share any thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Temperatures are forecasted to warm significantly with a ridge overhead and a storm system moving in from the west. Will the pattern allow the trough to move far enough east to push the ridge offshore and bring significant precip to the area next weekend?? If so the snow melt combined with the rain could lead to significant flooding the first week of 2011. Please share any thoughts. I got about inch so flooding is not a concern here but areas that did get walloped, will need to monitor the forecasts in the coming days. I know firsthand, from January 1996, what can happen when 2 ft of snow disappears quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I got about inch so flooding is not a concern here but areas that did get walloped, will need to monitor the forecasts in the coming days. I know firsthand, from January 1996, what can happen when 2 ft of snow disappears quickly. Yes i also know how bad it was after the biggest snow storm in Philly's history to be washed and flooded away the very next weekend the flooding was historic in most places. Those who didnt get much snow are actually sorta lucky to not face the flooding worries as much but those that did get pounded there is bigtime problems. Also the problem along the delaware rive downstream could be massive because of the snowmelt upstream so Philly itself might suffer some flooding also out of the delaware river since being downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I got about inch so flooding is not a concern here but areas that did get walloped, will need to monitor the forecasts in the coming days. I know firsthand, from January 1996, what can happen when 2 ft of snow disappears quickly. So do I. While flooding wasn't an issue at my house, I drove down to Easton to see the raging Delaware River. Unbeknownst to anyone (and me) who was along Larry Holmes Drive, the river would ice jam 2 miles south and rise rapidly. A few of us almost lost our cars in a parking lot nearby. it was a mad dash to get them out before the water engulfed the lot a few minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 In my area in Northeast NJ we got dumped on last February and in early March the temperatures warmed significantly. The snow pack was more or less gone by mid March but alot still remained up in the higher terrain of Northern Passaic County where alot of the water from the Passaic river basin originates from. We got a storm mid-March which brought about 4 inches of rain widespread and with the rivers already high from the snowmelt along with what was left in the higher terrain we ended up only 1.5' below record flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Looking ahead at the next two weeks on the GFS it looks like we get at least two decent chances at another significant system. For the first system...it looks like the southeast ridge holds firm and forces a clipper to our northwest. Looks very similar to the origional "clipper setup" we had ten days ago. Still plently of energy moving through the streams and plent of room for something to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I posted this another thread last night...but I think flooding should be at a minimum for this week. It is a gradual melt with temps slowly rising and I don't think we'll see that much rain with the system cutting way to our west, not like a typical lakes cutter. January 1996 was way worse because temps shot up to the 50s/60s rather quickly and then over 2 inches of rain followed.I remember having to evacuate to my Aunt's house late at night because it was feared that the Susquehanna was going to top the levees protecting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 With the major snow pack I'm willing to bet that temps will struggle to get above 40 around the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 With the major snow pack I'm willing to bet that temps will struggle to get above 40 around the NYC area. How much would you like to bet on that? Screaming south winds and a front to your west, snow pack will mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 With the major snow pack I'm willing to bet that temps will struggle to get above 40 around the NYC area. Um think again, the blizzard of 1996 dumped near and above 3 feet in the Philly region. And you'd think that the temps wouldnt have gotten to near 60 well it did without a problem and the snow-pack went bye bye fast and the flooding was bad. All you need is a warm front and cold front feature with rain out ahead of the cold front and bang you get a snow eating belt of rain and temps. It doesnt matter about snowpack with the upper levels switching to a warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Um think again, the blizzard of 1996 dumped near and above 3 feet in the Philly region. And you'd think that the temps wouldnt have gotten to near 60 well it did without a problem and the snow-pack went bye bye fast and the flooding was bad. All you need is a warm front and cold front feature with rain out ahead of the cold front and bang you get a snow eating belt of rain and temps. It doesnt matter about snowpack with the upper levels switching to a warm sector. I think the big question for next weekend is how warm does it get. I think most if not all the region cracks at least 50 on one or two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 The cold front and warm sector have to be very strong to push temps that high and that will not be the case with this warm up/cold frontal passage. The storm remains weak until it cuts NW of the lakes giving us a typical frontal passage. A few places will probably get to 50 or even a bit higher although I do think in this case, the snow cover will hold temps down a bit. We would need something that occurred on December 1st to give us widespread mid to upper 50s/60 readings and heavy rain to cause major flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 The cold front and warm sector have to be very strong to push temps that high and that will not be the case with this warm up/cold frontal passage. The storm remains weak until it cuts NW of the lakes giving us a typical frontal passage. A few places will probably get to 50 or even a bit higher although I do think in this case, the snow cover will hold temps down a bit. We would need something that occurred on December 1st to give us widespread mid to upper 50s/60 readings and heavy rain to cause major flooding. Yea, i don't believe heavy rain is going to occur which should elevate the threat for serious flooding. The next few days will be a slow melt and then this weekend, depending how warm it gets will determine if problems will occur but without heavy rain, they should remain minor. Last winter, down in these parts when almost 4 feet of snow was on the ground In February we all feared the worse. It never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 last February we had a similar snow pack and we got some heavy rain and almost had record flooding. With the pattern thats modeled for next weekend..its too early to tell how significant of a system it will be. Just take a look at todays 12z ecmwf...great potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I'm thinking that even if it does warm up as long as we don't lose too much snowcover during the week the flooding might not be too bad. The ground was frozen pretty deep before this blanket got laid down over it so a lot of the moisture may just runoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 I'm thinking that even if it does warm up as long as we don't lose too much snowcover during the week the flooding might not be too bad. The ground was frozen pretty deep before this blanket got laid down over it so a lot of the moisture may just runoff lol runoff is the exact opposite of what you want....and this frozen ground definitly doesn't help things. Without the ground helping to absorb some of the water..it will enter the streams and rivers more quickly leading to faster rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Guess that depends on if you live on a floodplain or a hillside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Next threat? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_162l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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