Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread

[nrgjeff]

Chart is on the previous page. Strato warming is more likely to dump on Europe. I truly hope I'm wrong for the sake of Ukraine. Anyway SSWs typically impact Europe first. Esp now we also got a Scandinavia block. 

I'd love to be wrong. Maybe instead of a true PV split it'll just jostle and reflect for North America. If Europe first, and warm Eastern USA, I'll take severe wx thanks. We need the rain. Hope to see y'all in the severe thread soon!

[Carvers Gap]

Some growing potential for a strong slp or cut-off just after mid-month.  Both the 12z Euro and GFS have it.  I doubt it is snow for the lower elevations, but I generally track anything that remotely looks like that.  Right now, winter is in the West.  Mammoth got 9-14" of snow at the  Main Lodge this past weekend.  They should meet their normal ski slope opener date (just a few days away).  LR ext modeling does hint that winter begins right after Thanksgiving in the East - huge grains of salt(and I mean huge).

[Carvers Gap]

The strat split stuff interests me a little bit at this time of year.  As Jeff noted, Eurasia is the primary first stop for that cold dump.  However, I think maybe it was '14-15(or '09-10 or both??? @John1122) where an early strat split set the stage for a cold second half of winter.  We will see.  I tend to be in the camp that believes that warm falls tend to flip cold very quickly during the latter half of November.  I may have to change my Dec forecast.  We will see.

[Golf757075]

32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The strat split stuff interests me a little bit at this time of year.  As Jeff noted, Eurasia is the primary first stop for that cold dump.  However, I think maybe it was 14-15 where an early strat split set the stage for a cold second half of winter.  We will see.  I tend to be in the camp that believes that warm falls tend to flip cold very quickly during the latter half of November.  I may have to change my Dec forecast.  We will see.

SSW are tricky. Been hearing alot about it, especially since its so early in season.  Not sure the benefits of it happening now if it did since its nov 2nd. Maybe higher elevations? Makes a difference. I am hopeful we can have one winter storm for us this winter.

[jaxjagman]

Tomer did some upgrades on POLAR WX,thought i already posted it

'https://www.polarwx.com/products/

[Carvers Gap]

40 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

SSW are tricky. Been hearing alot about it, especially since its so early in season.  Not sure the benefits of it happening now if it did since its nov 2nd. Maybe higher elevations? Makes a difference. I am hopeful we can have one winter storm for us this winter.

Yes.  They are incredibly tricky.  There is a smaller cluster of solutions(over the years) which can hit NA first.  "Usually" (in my experience) those occur from late December to especially Feb - March. Now, early strat splits can do some funky stuff.   If all of that cold dumps into Asia, then it would take time for it to recharge(meaning prolonged AN temps in NA).  Like Jeff said, we really want it to get more jostled than split.  I am seeing some colder temps(at times) on LR ext models, especially some(not all) control runs.  That could be a false alarm.  We have definitely seen models jump on colder solutions for NA during SSWs and be woefully wrong.  I tend to think winter will be more of a "second half of winter" deal this year, but...a strat split could upend almost any seasonal forecast right off the bat.

[Carvers Gap]

Also, and one can see this on the Weeklies today (ensemble and control), that often SSWs(which eventually find NA) will dump directly into Montana and then race into northern Texas....and then crawl eastward.  That sets up the mid-section of the country for snow/ice for late November and early December if true.  And that also sets us up for severe per Jeff.

[Carvers Gap]

These are the 30d looks for Nov 18-Dec18.  Notice how the cold in western/central Europe teleconnects somewhat to a trough over the East of NA.  Notice on the control how the cold dumps into Texas which is not unprecedented.  Remember the '93 Thanksgiving game between Miami and Dallas(touched FG attempt) w/ ice snow.  That control run is a NASTY look for all kinds of mischief over the SE.  In NO WAY am I calling for that at this point.  I have been watching this for several days(maybe a week).  I tend to think Jeff's comments would be wise to listen to and would temper expectations at this point.  But that is a wild look on the Weeklies today.  I wouldn't say that is bitterly cold.  That Hudson Bay block has been a warm look over the past few years, but a southern storm track to accompany that.  

In short, good storm track but cold source lacking.  Honestly, that isn't a terrible look for the Southeast.   That cutoff around the Nov 17th time frame could be the first buckle in the jet which ushers in big changes over NA.  We will see.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

On the plus side, I do think these summer time temps are gone after this week until next season.  I had hopes that extended summer was not going to prevail this year, but it certainly did!!!!

The SSW could certainly delay the typical winter analog pattern(El Nino) from taking over.  If the El Nino crashes mid-winter, then I would say, "Buckle up."  Chaos might be inbound, but we will see.  FWIW, chaos can be good or bad.

[Carvers Gap]

The last in a flurry of posts.  There is some continuity(over particularly NA) between the EURO LR Ext and the 12z CFS 30d maps for mid Nov to mid Dec....western and central Europe are obviously different.

[John1122]

I believe the strat split late November 2009. That and 1968 are two of the earliest warmings on record before this one. In 1968 we had some decent early December cold, and a deep freeze shot by mid-December with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits. There was an additional cold shot for Christmas and then it was extremely cold in early January 1969. A nice snow event and sub zero cold. Temperatures stayed well bn through mid-January.