Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread

[nrgjeff]

Chart is on the previous page. Strato warming is more likely to dump on Europe. I truly hope I'm wrong for the sake of Ukraine. Anyway SSWs typically impact Europe first. Esp now we also got a Scandinavia block. 

I'd love to be wrong. Maybe instead of a true PV split it'll just jostle and reflect for North America. If Europe first, and warm Eastern USA, I'll take severe wx thanks. We need the rain. Hope to see y'all in the severe thread soon!

[Carvers Gap]

Some growing potential for a strong slp or cut-off just after mid-month.  Both the 12z Euro and GFS have it.  I doubt it is snow for the lower elevations, but I generally track anything that remotely looks like that.  Right now, winter is in the West.  Mammoth got 9-14" of snow at the  Main Lodge this past weekend.  They should meet their normal ski slope opener date (just a few days away).  LR ext modeling does hint that winter begins right after Thanksgiving in the East - huge grains of salt(and I mean huge).

[Carvers Gap]

The strat split stuff interests me a little bit at this time of year.  As Jeff noted, Eurasia is the primary first stop for that cold dump.  However, I think maybe it was 14-15 where an early strat split set the stage for a cold second half of winter.  We will see.  I tend to be in the camp that believes that warm falls tend to flip cold very quickly during the latter half of November.  I may have to change my Dec forecast.  We will see.

[Golf757075]

32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The strat split stuff interests me a little bit at this time of year.  As Jeff noted, Eurasia is the primary first stop for that cold dump.  However, I think maybe it was 14-15 where an early strat split set the stage for a cold second half of winter.  We will see.  I tend to be in the camp that believes that warm falls tend to flip cold very quickly during the latter half of November.  I may have to change my Dec forecast.  We will see.

SSW are tricky. Been hearing alot about it, especially since its so early in season.  Not sure the benefits of it happening now if it did since its nov 2nd. Maybe higher elevations? Makes a difference. I am hopeful we can have one winter storm for us this winter.