Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread

[John1122]

We are less than a week away from met Fall beginning. Looks like extended summer on today's model runs with a very hot first week of September, especially for middle and western parts of the area. With luck they will be too extreme, much like they were with the late month cool shot that had some upper 40s showing up in East Tennessee from around 10 days out. It did get into the mid-50s the last two nights. But 5-8 degrees can be huge either for lows or highs. Hopefully those modeled mid 90s to low 100s verify cooler by 5+ degrees.

[John1122]

Looks like the misery continues for the next 10+ days. Hot, humid, and actually a little bit dry. Which after the deluge of rain for 6 weeks, won't be the worst news. I always look forward to the first 40s in September.

[Carvers Gap]

I think a tropical system will break this pattern sooner than later...kind of like a blizzard during winter shaking things up.  I do 100% agree that the next ten days look like a sauna.

[jaxjagman]

its 15 days out but still wild to look at if its true,that ridge has been there most of the summer off southeast Japan,it hasnt allowed any typhoons to go other than in East China,youd like to see this get displaced ,broke down or something,everytime its been showing this it builds back up im a couple days

[nrgjeff]

Yeah the Northern Hemisphere is locked in with this wave count.

SER today, SER tomorrow.. well y'all know the rest. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think this breaks down around the first of October.  LR ext models are hinting that we have about four more weeks of this furnace, and then it flips.  I hate hot September weather with a white hot passion.

[nrgjeff]

Unfortunately I believe that Carvers is right. I know we've had some warm Septembers, but this is effin' ludicrous! I can handle a couple ridiculous weeks, but the whole month looks ludicrous. And this week is effin' plaid! (Spaceballs)

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS starts to break down the furnace by about the 15th.  It has snow almost in northern Maine at some point during that run.  It may be grasping at straws, but there is a glimmer of hope.  I think we at least see a few cold fronts being to break the pattern by mid-month.  We need a tropical system to break this pattern, but it is tough getting tropical systems anywhere near the US coastline during El Nino.  I am really hoping the heat on modeling is feedback.  We are entering that timeframe where models will miss the first couple of cold fronts.  The GFS tends to do a little better during fall than the Euro in regards to spotting cold.  The ridge in the middle of the country has been TOUGH to budge this summer.  I know those folks have to be ready for it to depart!

[Carvers Gap]

Real feels across the area range from 95-102F.  I love September heat - NOT.  The Euro teases us with a backdoor cold front d9. Many operationals have had it off/on, and about 1/3 of ensemble members have it...  El Nino behaving like a La Nina.  

[John1122]

1954 is the hottest start to a September we've ever had. 4 of the 6 hottest September days ever recorded in Knoxville happened in the first 10 days of 1954, all of them were over 100 degrees.  15 days of the month were 90+ and 4 were 100+.

October saw a mix of warm and cold but it snowed on Halloween. Winter was BN Dec, BN Jan, AN Feb.

[*Flash*]

Can't believe I'm saying this on day 3 but alas...

[nrgjeff]

Wake me up on Halloween!

I have no optimism about winter based on any hot cold flip analog. I'd like to narrow it down to strong+ El Nino years. My thinking is the Atmo is just flooded with warm air. That PDO out of phase only adds it. Probably not SER all winter; that's Nina. Absurdly mild source regions +ABNA and a stormy STJ seem likely. We got a shot at the warmest winter in recorded history. I expect ZERO snow in Chatty, probably not even a trace.

[Daniel Boone]

On 9/1/2026 at 1:49 PM, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS starts to break down the furnace by about the 15th.  It has snow almost in northern Maine at some point during that run.  It may be grasping at straws, but there is a glimmer of hope.  I think we at least see a few cold fronts being to break the pattern by mid-month.  We need a tropical system to break this pattern, but it is tough getting tropical systems anywhere near the US coastline during El Nino.  I am really hoping the heat on modeling is feedback.  We are entering that timeframe where models will miss the first couple of cold fronts.  The GFS tends to do a little better during fall than the Euro in regards to spotting cold.  The ridge in the middle of the country has been TOUGH to budge this summer.  I know those folks have to be ready for it to depart!

Those folks in the Southern Plains have been punished by that heat ridge pretty much all Summer. Pity them. Amazing at the long standing consistency.

[nrgjeff]

I expect the hottest September on record. More mid-90s next week is just about enough to seal it - especially weighted toward AC use. But let's talk about simple temperatures. A brief mid-month front may give way to yet more SER activity. We can only hope it retrogrades a bit. Otherwise - hottest September in recorded history!

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I expect the hottest September on record. More mid-90s next week is just about enough to seal it - especially weighted toward AC use. But let's talk about simple temperatures. A brief mid-month front may give way to yet more SER activity. We can only hope it retrogrades a bit. Otherwise - hottest September in recorded history!

Yeah, it has been a furnace.  I don't remember September being hot during Nino climatology.  I do remember Octobers being cold.   We need some cool air.  These fall athletes are living in heat purgatory right now.  They need a break!  Reminds me of La Nina falls.  Maybe the atmosphere is just repeating the pattern regardless of ENSO?  Warm fall - endless summer.  Flip to winter temps, 2-4 week lull, more winter, and short spring?  At some point, fall "should" be cloudy and cool if Nino has anything to say about it - minus the flip.