Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread

[John1122]

We are less than a week away from met Fall beginning. Looks like extended summer on today's model runs with a very hot first week of September, especially for middle and western parts of the area. With luck they will be too extreme, much like they were with the late month cool shot that had some upper 40s showing up in East Tennessee from around 10 days out. It did get into the mid-50s the last two nights. But 5-8 degrees can be huge either for lows or highs. Hopefully those modeled mid 90s to low 100s verify cooler by 5+ degrees.

[John1122]

Looks like the misery continues for the next 10+ days. Hot, humid, and actually a little bit dry. Which after the deluge of rain for 6 weeks, won't be the worst news. I always look forward to the first 40s in September.

[Carvers Gap]

I think a tropical system will break this pattern sooner than later...kind of like a blizzard during winter shaking things up.  I do 100% agree that the next ten days look like a sauna.

[jaxjagman]

its 15 days out but still wild to look at if its true,that ridge has been there most of the summer off southeast Japan,it hasnt allowed any typhoons to go other than in East China,youd like to see this get displaced ,broke down or something,everytime its been showing this it builds back up im a couple days

[nrgjeff]

Yeah the Northern Hemisphere is locked in with this wave count.

SER today, SER tomorrow.. well y'all know the rest. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think this breaks down around the first of October.  LR ext models are hinting that we have about four more weeks of this furnace, and then it flips.  I hate hot September weather with a white hot passion.

[nrgjeff]

Unfortunately I believe that Carvers is right. I know we've had some warm Septembers, but this is effin' ludicrous! I can handle a couple ridiculous weeks, but the whole month looks ludicrous. And this week is effin' plaid! (Spaceballs)

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS starts to break down the furnace by about the 15th.  It has snow almost in northern Maine at some point during that run.  It may be grasping at straws, but there is a glimmer of hope.  I think we at least see a few cold fronts being to break the pattern by mid-month.  We need a tropical system to break this pattern, but it is tough getting tropical systems anywhere near the US coastline during El Nino.  I am really hoping the heat on modeling is feedback.  We are entering that timeframe where models will miss the first couple of cold fronts.  The GFS tends to do a little better during fall than the Euro in regards to spotting cold.  The ridge in the middle of the country has been TOUGH to budge this summer.  I know those folks have to be ready for it to depart!