Winter 26-27’ Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I don’t have a clear forecast like I do during Niña years.   I think a moderate to strong Nino seems likely.   Normally, I would just go with 70-75% of days at AN for temps with normal to AN rainfall for E TN.  The other 25-30% at normal.  However, recent winters have featured 2-3 weeks of bitterly cold weather west of the Apps.  Granted, that is likely due to a Niña signal.  However, I think those cold shots may well just be a feature of winters right now…regardless.   Normally, Nino winters are rainy and dreary with a lot of clouds…nothing remarkable with temps.   But…the warmer temps may well cause some convection in MJO regions 8-1-2 near the dateline.  That would cause some colder rotations with the MJO which has had strong influence during recent winters.  The current June CANSIPS parks a monster EPO ridge over AK for most of the winter.  The seasonal Euro is warmer over the East.  I lean AN for temps this winter DJF, but that is not a strong lean.   As for snow, Nino winters need to really be weak to weak-moderate for best chances.  But for E TN peeps, the chances for coastal storms increase which creates a feast for famine pattern during many winters.  Normally, Nino winters are kind of back loaded with normal Fall temps preceding that.  I could see kind of a meh December with chances in Jan and Feb.

 

[jaxjagman]

I'll side with you right now Carver

But i'm not exactly sure what analog you would even start with ATM.

in the strong Ninos in 91-92 and 97-98 winter both had a EQBO

Now the strong NINO of 2015-16 had a WQBO but the QBO flaked out into winter,not sure thats a worthy analog year or could we see a repeat,dunno.Here is a paer by Kang,WooSoo and Chun on this

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100101

[nrgjeff]

East based super Nino should be warm and stormy. Agree the secondary pattern probably will be a couple weeks of Arctic dump. Loss of baroclinicty at the hemispheric level allows the jet stream to weaken, buckle, and deliver cold. 

Primary pattern I'm looking for mild mainly due to no cold air to deliver (outside the very meridional patterns) from the Midwest or even south-central Canada. East based is less conducive for other cold patterns. Maybe we can get southwest flow all winter. If it's not going to snow, give me severe!

Might be my last post for a while. Why is the board so slow?

[Carvers Gap]

With mid to upper 90s on tap next week….winter with temps in the 50s all winter doesn’t seem so bad.  LOL.  As for the slow down…it‘s hot and this forum doesn’t do AN temps in the summer.   LOL.  I figured I would go w a winter thread since the current pattern is a snoozer.  It will crank up soon enough!

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

East based super Nino should be warm and stormy. Agree the secondary pattern probably will be a couple weeks of Arctic dump. Loss of baroclinicty at the hemispheric level allows the jet stream to weaken, buckle, and deliver cold. 

Primary pattern I'm looking for mild mainly due to no cold air to deliver (outside the very meridional patterns) from the Midwest or even south-central Canada. East based is less conducive for other cold patterns. Maybe we can get southwest flow all winter. If it's not going to snow, give me severe!

Might be my last post for a while. Why is the board so slow?

QBO should pop positive, right?  Teleconnections are iffy right now.  Storm track might be marginal help.   Super Nino patterns are generally warm here with a random, highly localized big snow in somebody’s backyard.  Might be the MJO is our best bet with warm water over 8-2-1.  It might balance out the poor QBO alignment.

[Carvers Gap]

Cansips looks wrong…but if it is correct, we would be in business.  Got a feeling it changes just a bit during future runs. But I hope not.

[Golf757075]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cansips looks wrong…but if it is correct, we would be in business.  Got a feeling it changes just a bit during future runs. But I hope not.

Its too far out to know anything. It should be cooler due to clouds and rain. Always fun to speculate. 2015-16 was +qbo east-central based. 

[jaxjagman]

On 6/25/2026 at 5:44 PM, Carvers Gap said:

QBO should pop positive, right?  Teleconnections are iffy right now.  Storm track might be marginal help.   Super Nino patterns are generally warm here with a random, highly localized big snow in somebody’s backyard.  Might be the MJO is our best bet with warm water over 8-2-1.  It might balance out the poor QBO alignment.

We are already in  a WQBO,it should strnhgten into fall,winter 

We dont do horrible in winter with the combo.ENSO.Wet summer dry aatumn and wet winter,of course you should be comcerned with ice

[Carvers Gap]

On 6/26/2026 at 1:32 AM, Golf757075 said:

Its too far out to know anything. It should be cooler due to clouds and rain. Always fun to speculate. 2015-16 was +qbo east-central based. 

I think that is true for this winter…not the last two.  Those were pretty strong analog years.  But analogs for sure do not decide what comes next.  We can agree on that.  However, long wave pattern recognition during some weather cycles is not overly difficult.   In fact, it might more accurate than d10-15 forecasts.   I mean warm with a moderate to strong ENSO cycle.  That might be different in middle and west TN.  E TN often just watches storm tracks with this va cold front watching.  
 

For the past two winters, I felt pretty good about seasonal ideas.  This one is tricky.  But when in doubt, I go with ENSO.  That says AN temps for DJF but with MJO cycles into colder phases at times.  Storm track is coastal plain at times.  

[Carvers Gap]

Somebody tell me about the winters of 47-48 and 75-76.

[jaxjagman]

New Years eve was a historic ice storm in West and Cen Tn,but that was a nuetral ENSO i believe ,also75-76 was basically NINA as well,just saying

[John1122]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Somebody tell me about the winters of 47-48 and 75-76.

47-48 was around normal in Dec, cold and very snowy in Jan, AN in Feb. The cold wasn't extreme (nothing below -6) in January but persistent and it was around -7 for the month with 18 inches of snow here.

75-76 were similar but with about half the total snow here. Dec was around -2.5, January was around -5, Feb was AN but the biggest snow event was in Feb. January had a two decent snow events on the Plateau (3.5 and 5 inches), up into Pennington Gap/Wise, Va, that don't appear to have been much of anything outside of the Cumberland Mountain region. That led to 4 different mornings of below zero weather for here, Oneida, and Wise.  Snow fell on 14 different days in the month in other areas but it was T to .5 inch amounts and lowest bottomed out around 1-3 in most of the area.

[Scottie16]

Record SJT on June 26.


.

[John1122]

82-83 was a very strong Nino year, one of the 3 strongest. 

We had a big snow in December, two decent ones in January and another in February. Temps were AN in December and normal for J and F. 

1997-98 was a top 3. We had the massive NE Tennessee and then Plateau snow storms. December had several inches fall between Christmas and New Years. January was snowless here but NE areas got smashed late month. We got it a week later in Early February. Otherwise winter was mild.

 

2015-16 was a pretty snowy/cold winter for most of us I believe. 

So there's always a good chance of a big snow or several during the strongest Ninos. But the base pattern is likely to he N to AN temp wise. 

[Carvers Gap]

Back from Europe.  And, yes!  I got to experience THE heat wave.  No A/C sucks.  Great trip, though.  We were in Scandanavia...and still almost hit 99 w/ normal highs of 65!  Back to normal for the second half of the trip, and legit felt cold at times.  Got back home, and hit another heat wave!  Haha - not so much fun.  Great trip, the Danish and Swedish people are incredibly respectful, and we are thankful for them sharing their country with us.  Great areas, and much less crowded than other places in Europe.  Really want to do Iceland.

Anyway, I like John's analogs.  47-48' in my post above is a Euro heat wave analog.  The summers of 47' and 75' were both record setters in Copenhagen.  I am gonna ride those analogs I think.  I will probably blend those with John's, and I think we have a pretty good set of analogs.

Now, the July 1 CANSIPS......is a beauty yet again.  BIG ridge out West for DJFM.  Nice cold source.  Seems a bit too good to be true, but it's a banger.

[Carvers Gap]

On 6/29/2026 at 11:14 PM, John1122 said:

82-83 was a very strong Nino year, one of the 3 strongest. 

We had a big snow in December, two decent ones in January and another in February. Temps were AN in December and normal for J and F. 

1997-98 was a top 3. We had the massive NE Tennessee and then Plateau snow storms. December had several inches fall between Christmas and New Years. January was snowless here but NE areas got smashed late month. We got it a week later in Early February. Otherwise winter was mild.

 

2015-16 was a pretty snowy/cold winter for most of us I believe. 

So there's always a good chance of a big snow or several during the strongest Ninos. But the base pattern is likely to he N to AN temp wise. 

Thanks for the posts, and great info.  Agree on all points.  I think I had just moved back to TN from FL(spent two years in purgatory) in 82-83.  We had this crazy snow where we got like 4-5" of snow and then it rained...and washed it all away.  Seems like the start to that winter was crazy cold.  I remember riding through South Knoxville w/ the windows frozen up.

[John1122]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thanks for the posts, and great info.  Agree on all points.  I think I had just moved back to TN from FL(spent two years in purgatory) in 82-83.  We had this crazy snow where we got like 4-5" of snow and then it rained...and washed it all away.  Seems like the start to that winter was crazy cold.  I remember riding through South Knoxville w/ the windows frozen up.

December of '82 started really warm, that's why it finished AN. Temps were near 80 early in the month. By mid December highs were below freezing and lows were in the low single digits after a 10 inch snow event on the Plateau. Knoxville got around 3-4 from that event, if records are to be believed. Tri had 6+.

It warmed dramatically for Christmas of '82 as well, with highs in the 60s/70s.