Winter 26-27’ Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I don’t have a clear forecast like I do during Niña years.   I think a moderate to strong Nino seems likely.   Normally, I would just go with 70-75% of days at AN for temps with normal to AN rainfall for E TN.  The other 25-30% at normal.  However, recent winters have featured 2-3 weeks of bitterly cold weather west of the Apps.  Granted, that is likely due to a Niña signal.  However, I think those cold shots may well just be a feature of winters right now…regardless.   Normally, Nino winters are rainy and dreary with a lot of clouds…nothing remarkable with temps.   But…the warmer temps may well cause some convection in MJO regions 8-1-2 near the dateline.  That would cause some colder rotations with the MJO which has had strong influence during recent winters.  The current June CANSIPS parks a monster EPO ridge over AK for most of the winter.  The seasonal Euro is warmer over the East.  I lean AN for temps this winter DJF, but that is not a strong lean.   As for snow, Nino winters need to really be weak to weak-moderate for best chances.  But for E TN peeps, the chances for coastal storms increase which creates a feast for famine pattern during many winters.  Normally, Nino winters are kind of back loaded with normal Fall temps preceding that.  I could see kind of a meh December with chances in Jan and Feb.

 

[jaxjagman]

I'll side with you right now Carver

But i'm not exactly sure what analog you would even start with ATM.

in the strong Ninos in 91-92 and 97-98 winter both had a EQBO

Now the strong NINO of 2015-16 had a WQBO but the QBO flaked out into winter,not sure thats a worthy analog year or could we see a repeat,dunno.Here is a paer by Kang,WooSoo and Chun on this

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100101

[nrgjeff]

East based super Nino should be warm and stormy. Agree the secondary pattern probably will be a couple weeks of Arctic dump. Loss of baroclinicty at the hemispheric level allows the jet stream to weaken, buckle, and deliver cold. 

Primary pattern I'm looking for mild mainly due to no cold air to deliver (outside the very meridional patterns) from the Midwest or even south-central Canada. East based is less conducive for other cold patterns. Maybe we can get southwest flow all winter. If it's not going to snow, give me severe!

Might be my last post for a while. Why is the board so slow?

[Carvers Gap]

With mid to upper 90s on tap next week….winter with temps in the 50s all winter doesn’t seem so bad.  LOL.  As for the slow down…it‘s hot and this forum doesn’t do AN temps in the summer.   LOL.  I figured I would go w a winter thread since the current pattern is a snoozer.  It will crank up soon enough!

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

East based super Nino should be warm and stormy. Agree the secondary pattern probably will be a couple weeks of Arctic dump. Loss of baroclinicty at the hemispheric level allows the jet stream to weaken, buckle, and deliver cold. 

Primary pattern I'm looking for mild mainly due to no cold air to deliver (outside the very meridional patterns) from the Midwest or even south-central Canada. East based is less conducive for other cold patterns. Maybe we can get southwest flow all winter. If it's not going to snow, give me severe!

Might be my last post for a while. Why is the board so slow?

QBO should pop positive, right?  Teleconnections are iffy right now.  Storm track might be marginal help.   Super Nino patterns are generally warm here with a random, highly localized big snow in somebody’s backyard.  Might be the MJO is our best bet with warm water over 8-2-1.  It might balance out the poor QBO alignment.

[Carvers Gap]

Cansips looks wrong…but if it is correct, we would be in business.  Got a feeling it changes just a bit during future runs. But I hope not.

[Golf757075]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cansips looks wrong…but if it is correct, we would be in business.  Got a feeling it changes just a bit during future runs. But I hope not.

Its too far out to know anything. It should be cooler due to clouds and rain. Always fun to speculate. 2015-16 was +qbo east-central based.