Winter 26-27’ Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I don’t have a clear forecast like I do during Niña years.   I think a moderate to strong Nino seems likely.   Normally, I would just go with 70-75% of days at AN for temps with normal to AN rainfall for E TN.  The other 25-30% at normal.  However, recent winters have featured 2-3 weeks of bitterly cold weather west of the Apps.  Granted, that is likely due to a Niña signal.  However, I think those cold shots may well just be a feature of winters right now…regardless.   Normally, Nino winters are rainy and dreary with a lot of clouds…nothing remarkable with temps.   But…the warmer temps may well cause some convection in MJO regions 8-1-2 near the dateline.  That would cause some colder rotations with the MJO which has had strong influence during recent winters.  The current June CANSIPS parks a monster EPO ridge over AK for most of the winter.  The seasonal Euro is warmer over the East.  I lean AN for temps this winter DJF, but that is not a strong lean.   As for snow, Nino winters need to really be weak to weak-moderate for best chances.  But for E TN peeps, the chances for coastal storms increase which creates a feast for famine pattern during many winters.  Normally, Nino winters are kind of back loaded with normal Fall temps preceding that.  I could see kind of a meh December with chances in Jan and Feb.

 

[jaxjagman]

I'll side with you right now Carver

But i'm not exactly sure what analog you would even start with ATM.

in the strong Ninos in 91-92 and 97-98 winter both had a EQBO

Now the strong NINO of 2015-16 had a WQBO but the QBO flaked out into winter,not sure thats a worthy analog year or could we see a repeat,dunno.Here is a paer by Kang,WooSoo and Chun on this

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100101