2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity

[Windspeed]

Nolo is looking spectacular this morning and well on its way to becoming another 2026 EPAC/CPAC Category 5.

[Windspeed]

Increased shear over Nolo put a halt on Category 5 being attained. Peaked at 135 kts.

[Windspeed]

Polo is approaching landfall. Shear is also affecting Polo, but it is now better aligned with the hurricane's vector of motion, which should mitigate any significant weakening prior to landfall. Intense convection is currently firing in the eastern and northern semicircles of the eyewall and spilling over the eye, giving an assymetric structure. However, we're close enough to landfall that it will likely remain officially a Category 3 landfall at this point since the last recon mission confirmed 100 kts. Morgerman is headed to the community of Las Barrancas, which still looks like a close point of landfall. If he nails the eye, he should get enough data to help confirm.

[olafminesaw]

One rather strange thing about Polo is despite multiple ERCs/structural changes it remains a relatively compact hurricane. In fact the code has remained roughly the same size throughout its life

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

One rather strange thing about Polo is despite multiple ERCs/structural changes it remains a relatively compact hurricane. In fact the code has remained roughly the same size throughout its life

That is odd.  Usually every ERC, the radii of TS and HU winds expands somewhat.

[GaWx]

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:
 

 

[Wannabehippie]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:
 

 

Another core penetration by Josh. new update from him on FB

"8:15 pm  Hearing distinct howling in the distance. Things starting to bang.
Hurricane POLO in Las Barrancas."
That 8:15pm is his local time

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Another core penetration by Josh. new update from him on FB

"8:15 pm  Hearing distinct howling in the distance. Things starting to bang.
Hurricane POLO in Las Barrancas."
That 8:15pm is his local time

From 5AM EDT NHC discussion:

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Corrected for Key Message number 1.

Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range.

[GaWx]

 Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though: