Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[dendrite]

Yeah more like a mild down. Lots of 70s/80s next week as of now.

Dews and overnight mins will be down though for sure.

[Damage In Tolland]

Whenever he is weather frustrated with boredom he takes it out on the board lol

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah more like a mild down. Lots of 70s/80s next week as of now.

Dews and overnight mins will be down though for sure.

Lots 79-86 type days and near 60 at night . And of course Stein 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whenever he is weather frustrated with boredom he takes it out on the board lol

At least we get to watch cars flipped and fires in NYC this week. That will be entertaining. Maybe it will even get wilder than the pumpkin rioters in Keene.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

At least we get to watch cars flipped and fires in NYC this week. That will be entertaining. Maybe it will even get wilder than the pumpkin rioters in Keene.

Yup. With that mayor there the city is going to literally burn . You couldn’t pay me enough to be anywhere near there this weekend 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whenever he is weather frustrated with boredom he takes it out on the board lol

It’s cancelled. 75-83 is Fall.

[CoastalWx]

Cancelled like a Trump ceasefire 

[CoastalWx]

Ridge centers in the plains 11-15 day. I’m also hearing July may be cancelled. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cancelled like a Trump ceasefire 

Dews will be back.

2 more weeks

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ridge centers in the plains 11-15 day. I’m also hearing July may be cancelled. 

60s straight through July to Feb?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dews will be back.

2 more weeks

The strait of dews will be open in a few days. We have a very very good deal with the gulf on the table.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

60s straight through July to Feb?

As long as it rains in Templeton fine by me.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

72/66 at midnight is summery.  

Yeah, just poking around the NWS non-standard sites and everyone was 68 to 72 for a low.

Some in fact are 80 by 80...  that's a bit above climo too.   We'll see where we are at 10am.  I don't frankly see any limitations on high temperature as the nocturnal weakly bounded low on the arm of the warm front has escaped seaward and clearing has enveloped; we're pretty much unobstructed solar, dumping raw radiant power into a very prepped situation/high-ish launch scenario. 

I'm noticing an AWT moment as NWS has indeed extended the headlines throughout - that weak BD idea in the models was another example of their going from poor detection in previous generations, to being oversensitive and over creating them if you ask me ...

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, just poking around the NWS non-standard sites and everyone was 68 to 72 for a low.

Some in fact are 80 by 80...  that's a bit above climo too.   We'll see where we are at 10am.  I don't frankly see any limitations on high temperature as the nocturnal weakly bounded low on the arm of the warm front has escaped seaward and clearing has enveloped; we're pretty much unobstructed solar, dumping raw radiant power into a very prepped situation/high-ish launch scenario. 

I'm noticing an AWT moment as NWS has indeed extended the headlines throughout - that weak BD idea in the models was another example of their going from poor detection in previous generations, to being oversensitive and over creating them if you ask me ...

Even the model surface temps had 90s here. I have no idea what they were looking at.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah more like a mild down. Lots of 70s/80s next week as of now.

Dews and overnight mins will be down though for sure.

It's a standard summer oscillatory pattern. 

We could have really assumed the models were too deep on the polar side of the ambient jet, a failing particular to the GFS in latter mids and ext ranges...  As we get closer, it's converting it to more climo-friendly wave spacing pushing fronts through a more neutral foot.   

Hydrostats meandering up and down around 560 dm thickness isn't exactly a cold fulcrum. It shouldn't really inspire very BN to be honest.

- realize there's some shape likeness to autumn but folks whom are challenged to employ an objective "cold bullshit filter" ...like at all, may find that too hard to resist, however

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even the model surface temps had 90s here. I have no idea what they were looking at.

Chips Ahoy boxes 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even the model surface temps had 90s here. I have no idea what they were looking at.

Maybe too much of a good thing?     Too much data dooms us in here in winter as we needle through all these implications over multitudes of modeling output that starts to paint these ideas on how to get a storm pack to 20" from 3 units of vertical velocity when sometimes a step back and head clearing might make the event at hand a bit more realistic and less ACME coyote planned.     LOL...

I dunno. Maybe analogous to that they're looking at too many reasons that could happen and not enough at if it's likely.   I did annotate a chart that showed a tendency for a west bulged PP on Friday, yesterday morning, but it was very weak... The NAM grid had that numeric suggestion at Logan of 88 to 76 back to 88 wind driven temp flop look. Not sure if that's what they were spooked by.   That same 'bulge' is now gone, and the NAM grid has offshore throughout.

[dendrite]

I feel like the first half of June is shaping up a lot warmer than it was looking a few weeks ago. I’d have to go back and read the posts. But most sites will be well AN through Sunday. ineedvitD can keep posting his d10 GFS afternoon 40s that verify as 70s and 80s.

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, just poking around the NWS non-standard sites and everyone was 68 to 72 for a low.

Some in fact are 80 by 80...  that's a bit above climo too.   We'll see where we are at 10am.  I don't frankly see any limitations on high temperature as the nocturnal weakly bounded low on the arm of the warm front has escaped seaward and clearing has enveloped; we're pretty much unobstructed solar, dumping raw radiant power into a very prepped situation/high-ish launch scenario. 

I'm noticing an AWT moment as NWS has indeed extended the headlines throughout - that weak BD idea in the models was another example of their going from poor detection in previous generations, to being oversensitive and over creating them if you ask me ...

Did they actually term it a backdoor? It always looked like an outflow assisted seabreeze to me on the mesos from some convection along the coast. Looks like we ended up with a little more ridging though because I remember that 2m theta-e gradient being near the NH/ME border and now it’s up into central ME for this evening.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the first half of June is shaping up a lot warmer than it was looking a few weeks ago. I’d have to go back and read the posts. But most sites will be well AN through Sunday. ineedvitD can keep posting his d10 GFS afternoon 40s that verify as 70s and 80s.

  ?

I think there's a pattern relative warm bias that is the CC expression that is sort of unnoticed - or maybe ...everyone knows it but chooses to ignore.  I dunno.   But what I mean by pattern relative warm bias is that the pattern essences may actually be verifying better than either the temperatures that result, as well as what folk tend to associate what those patterns look like the temps should be.  

I don't mean that necessarily wrt this last month's behavior ( necessarily...), but I always go ahead and assume two aspects: these 540 dm festering multi contoured hornet stings on the summer D9-13 charts we see over James Bay are not going to do that, and, whatever comes of it...we'll be 2-7F above scalar predictions anyway

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Did they actually term it a backdoor? It always looked like an outflow assisted seabreeze to me on the mesos from some convection along the coast. Looks like we ended up with a little more ridging though because I remember that 2m theta-e gradient being near the NH/ME border and now it’s up into central ME for this evening.

Oh, yeah....  I posted their disco excerpt ... 

"...especially away from the coastal plain. Heat Advisories may be expanded further east; however, a backdoor cold front is expected to drop into eastern MA sometime on Friday"

But in their defense... they did mention the advisories might extend east - I don't care to be involved with the petty pot shot at NWS thing... just sayn'

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the first half of June is shaping up a lot warmer than it was looking a few weeks ago. I’d have to go back and read the posts. But most sites will be well AN through Sunday. ineedvitD can keep posting his d10 GFS afternoon 40s that verify as 70s and 80s.

You are correct. No one had a WAN first half . Same will happen second half and Julorch . Both will warm as we get closer 

[Typhoon Tip]

Look at this pig ...

984 mb low near BUFF, yet ... immersed in only 564 dm thickness, having almost no hydrostratic gradients surrounding all quads, either

In summer.  

This is D7 Euro so... meh, no responsibility to accuracy is really there - yet - but that's an example of too much amplitude ( or likely to be...) on summer mid range charts.  I like the triple point secondary low forming at the head of the 576 - that combination of metrics you don't typically see, huh

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are correct. No one had a WAN first half . Same will happen second half and Julorch . Both will warm as we get closer 

77 instead of 72. Big effing deal. 

[CoastalWx]

All I know is after this weekend deep summer is canceled UFN.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

As long as it rains in Templeton fine by me.

Same  weeks and weeks of rains... noone has harder rain than Templeton 

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder if data population schemes are more problematic in summer than winter.  Maybe a known thing.

Tracing that 500 mb vort paneling backward ...it seems the Euro/GFS are both getting an awful lot of momentum arriving out of the Pacific over the western continent around D5/6, then racing it into a bit of non-linear constructive interference triggering a shallow wave break and bombogenesis - originating along the lofty 570 mb height contour is a head scratcher. 

I guess it's not impossible...  I mean, the models have to at least be physically possible otherwise they have 0 meaning.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, NWS' climo Prelims have +2 to +5 at their 4 representative sites for SNE thru the first 10 days of June

ORH/BOS are absurd and need to be changed, since climate affects POPULATIONS

I suppose the Logan one has a sciency usefulness for how the coupling marine environments and all that jazz... but otherwise? no.  Using that for "Boston" is just a thorn that is generations overdue to be pulled out.   Doesn't matter what it takes or what hardship is perceived, if I were a fascist god, I would tell them to do so immediately or suffer the wrath of discontent that makes president Dump look like the bed of daisies he's about start nourishing ( ...actually, they'd probably vomit, wilt and die )

ORH is a little less egregious. There are neighborhoods scattered around the AP up there on the hill, but because it's geo-physically always going to be 6 to 8 F cooler up there than the swelter below where there's many orders of magnitude more people actually living - to fairly use that as climate is jack shit, really.

[CoastalWx]

The drought stuff is out of control. There’s so many Mets out there that just blindly take Logan‘s record and run with it and make it look like that’s everyone across southern New England. It’s pretty obvious the two big snowstorms caused issues with catching the right amount of LEQ because all the other co-ops around Logan have a lot more from those two storms in terms of liquid equivalent than the ASOS. It’s not hard to dig a little deeper and see that. Yes it’s obviously been dry but not the record amount that’s  being touted. People just diminish the science so much lately.

[Typhoon Tip]

I can tell you these 'feel' correct...

Approaching 10, and these have another update coming... so, 10 after 10 pushes this deep into stifling and prooobaly more warning level heat than just Advisory from about 1pm thru 5pm...  I don't know what the time requirements are on the headlines so not criticizing there, per se... but if we tap 94 ..95/72, that's a damn sizzling HI.

By the way, this region appears to be weirdly 2-3 F hotter than everywhere else at this particular time.