Mountain West Discussion

[ValpoVike]

For sure, northern front range did very well this week. Even Thornton did quite well. Sorry you guys didn’t.

 

[frontranger8]

55 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

For sure, northern front range did very well this week. Even Thornton did quite well. Sorry you guys didn’t.

 

Yeah, pretty much anywhere north of downtown did pretty well. DEN picked up over half an inch, about in line with what models were showing a few days out.

[ValpoVike]

3 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

Yeah, pretty much anywhere north of downtown did pretty well. DEN picked up over half an inch, about in line with what models were showing a few days out.

[smokeybandit]

A huge plume of rain literally 2-3 miles to my west for the last hour, yet it refuses to come east.

[mayjawintastawm]

Glorious here, 0.45" from an outflow-generated storm. Finally. Most in 6 weeks or more. Temp went from 96 to 66 in a couple of hours. You'll get it, eventually!

[smokeybandit]

I got under one of those heavy popup cells finally. 0.4" in about 10 minutes.

[Chinook]

It was 100 all across the area today. It's pretty rare.

[smokeybandit]

I got above 97 for a bit this afternoon. Highest I've recorded on my PWS.

I just hope the monsoon hype verifies this week.

[frontranger8]

17 hours ago, Chinook said:

It was 100 all across the area today. It's pretty rare.

DEN hit 103. Two days ago Greeley hit 107.

For DEN, it was the hottest temp since 2018. It was the 15th time on record Denver has hit 103 or hotter.

At Greeley, it was the hottest temp since 2006, and only the sixth time in their history.

[frontranger8]

15 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

I got above 97 for a bit this afternoon. Highest I've recorded on my PWS.

I just hope the monsoon hype verifies this week.

Wouldn't get your hopes up too much. Looks like pretty standard fare for this time of year, definitely nothing crazy.

 

[ValpoVike]

2 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Wouldn't get your hopes up too much. Looks like pretty standard fare for this time of year, definitely nothing crazy.

I agree that this is pretty typical for Monsoon-time.  The monsoon doesn't produce days and days of widespread heavy rain aside from a few lucky spots....but in years where it fails, it has severe consequences and it's absence has a remarkable effect.  A big example is the 2020 "non-soon" which essentially created a summer of very low humidity + heat and that didn't end well.

[GaWx]

The extended GEFS and more-so the EPS are suggesting a pretty robust monsoon (wetter than normal) getting established early to mid-Aug and staying pretty active though diminishing some near the start of Sept on the EPS.

 What period is the heart of the Monsoon climowise? 

[smokeybandit]

Well, Monday was yet another over hyped monsoon bust.

[ValpoVike]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

Well, Monday was yet another over hyped monsoon bust.

Perhaps you should examine your expectations and not over-index on social or broadcast media. But even with that said I have noticed several Mets on social media being careful to say that not everyone will get rain on any particular day. Today a lot of people west of the metro would disagree with you. Except for Friday and partially Saturday, many locations have seen good precipitation. That goes for the past 2 weeks actually. 
 

Also, it is more of a pattern and not an event. The pattern allows storms to form on the western slopes. 

[ValpoVike]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The extended GEFS and more EPS  are suggesting a pretty robust monsoon (wetter than normal) getting established early to mid-Aug and staying pretty active though diminishing some near the start of Sept on the EPS.

 What period is the heart of the Monsoon climowise? 

Usually the peak is late July thru most of August. There are also a lot of misconceptions about the monsoon. It typically affects the high country and occasionally storms push down into the plains. 

[smokeybandit]

36 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

Perhaps you should examine your expectations and not over-index on social or broadcast media. But even with that said I have noticed several Mets on social media being careful to say that not everyone will get rain on any particular day. Today a lot of people west of the metro would disagree with you. Except for Friday and partially Saturday, many locations have seen good precipitation. That goes for the past 2 weeks actually. 
 

Also, it is more of a pattern and not an event. The pattern allows storms to form on the western slopes. 

I only follow a few rather grounded mets on social media.  But that's just it, the pattern has it and the mountains are doing well, just not much getting over the hills.

 

[frontranger8]

3 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

Usually the peak is late July thru most of August. There are also a lot of misconceptions about the monsoon. It typically affects the high country and occasionally storms push down into the plains. 

Long term, Denver averages 2" in July and 1.7" in August. So I'd say for this area anyway, on average it peaks second half of July and is often basically over by second half of August.

That being said, there have been many times where August has been much wetter than July (2022 is the only real recent example, but quite a few further back). We are badly due for a very wet August for the region...the last one was 2008.

Of course, we had the wettest September and month ever in 2013, which was due to unusually late monsoonal activity.

[frontranger8]

2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

I only follow a few rather grounded mets on social media.  But that's just it, the pattern has it and the mountains are doing well, just not much getting over the hills.

 

Tomorrow looks more promising for widespread showers/storms.

[ValpoVike]

I just picked up 0.81” in under 40 minutes. 

[smokeybandit]

Flash flooding not too far south of me. Still not a drop yet for me, but models still say it's coming later.

[mayjawintastawm]

20 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

Perhaps you should examine your expectations and not over-index on social or broadcast media. But even with that said I have noticed several Mets on social media being careful to say that not everyone will get rain on any particular day. Today a lot of people west of the metro would disagree with you. Except for Friday and partially Saturday, many locations have seen good precipitation. That goes for the past 2 weeks actually. 
 

Also, it is more of a pattern and not an event. The pattern allows storms to form on the western slopes. 

It's just SO frustrating (and this goes back to last Fall, really) when any kind of deterministic forecasts seem to underperform time after time after time, so it ends up being like Charlie Brown and the football (yes, I'm dating myself). For many in the SE Metro, including smokeybandit and me, it's been a constant state of "wait till next week/month/year" for a year or so. Before that, in fact, the region tended to overperform a bit, especially with snowstorms, acting like the northern edge of the Palmer Divide that it is. This year however, prior to last week, we had barely over 4 inches of water YTD, reflected by the D3 designation that for a time was the only part of the Metro area that had it. It messes with your mind!

[smokeybandit]

Some loudly barking storms came through, but didn't drop much rain. Only 0.2"

Overall a much better day for the region and my local area, helping the water tables some.

[ValpoVike]

13 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

It's just SO frustrating (and this goes back to last Fall, really) when any kind of deterministic forecasts seem to underperform time after time after time, so it ends up being like Charlie Brown and the football (yes, I'm dating myself). For many in the SE Metro, including smokeybandit and me, it's been a constant state of "wait till next week/month/year" for a year or so. Before that, in fact, the region tended to overperform a bit, especially with snowstorms, acting like the northern edge of the Palmer Divide that it is. This year however, prior to last week, we had barely over 4 inches of water YTD, reflected by the D3 designation that for a time was the only part of the Metro area that had it. It messes with your mind!

I get both of your frustrations, and it seems like you have lived in a donut hole for the past couple of years.  I was only responding to comments regarding the monsoon bust, which it clearly is not busting.  Obviously, the SE metro begs to differ but that is more localized rather than indicative of the status of the region as a whole.