2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cptcatz]

What a season! It's September 19 and a new weak tropical depression near the Azores is getting all the hype. 

[Boston Bulldog]

Bursting convection over the center, I think we have Fay at 5pm. Regardless of final intensity, these systems in the subtropics can be quite well organized and aesthetic looking if they get their act together 

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Bursting convection over the center, I think we have Fay at 5pm. Regardless of final intensity, these systems in the subtropics can be quite well organized and aesthetic looking if they get their act together 

Not yet 

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026
 
A new burst of convection has formed over the depression, that
mostly covers the center of the system. However, the bulk of the
convection is still on the northern side of the cyclone at this
time, implying that some wind shear is still affecting it. The most 
recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which is the same as the 
previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt 
for this advisory. 
 
Tropical Depression Six is still moving slowly, but has started to 
show a bit more motion towards the north-northeast. The cyclone 
should move more northeastward for roughly the next 36 h as a 
trough to the north weakens a low- to mid-level ridge to the 
northeast. Following this, at around 48 h, the ridge should build 
back towards the west, which in turn will force the cyclone to move 
southwestward for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC 
forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with 
small adjustments to the track and speed, and remains in good 
agreement with HCCA and GDMI.

The cyclone should move into a slightly more favorable environment, 
between two areas of intense shear, and so there a good chance for 
intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the 
system should move into an area of higher shear as the previously 
mentioned trough moves closer. This should lead to a gradual 
weakening of the system. The depression is expected to become a 
post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 
120 h. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast of when the 
cyclone will become post-tropical and then dissipate, as both could 
possibly occur sooner than what is currently forecast. The new NHC 
intensity forecast is still in the middle of the guidance envelope, 
and is closely align with HCCA and just under GDMI for peak 
intensity. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 32.9N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 33.3N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 33.8N  32.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 33.7N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 32.9N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 31.7N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 30.5N  34.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 28.6N  38.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It was almost like NHC was just hoping it would go away so they didn’t have to classify it 

As much as they would not admit, sometimes that is a factor.  Here is something similar.

Recall the system S of New England Jan 2023?  That was a hurricane, but they blew it off operationally.  Yes, a few months later they included it as a 60 kt STS, but not operationally declaring it when it was clear was it was?  So that suggests that if they can get away w/ not doing it operationally, and just let post-season analysis "deal w/ it," they will.  Another motivation could have been that a hurricane close to the East Coast "out of blue" in Jan?  The public and media would freak and perhaps they did not want to deal w/ all that, but again, we should not be summarily constrained by policy or social/political factors when it comes to operational meteorology and calling things for what they are.

And this ended up impacting marine Canada, so it was not a "fish storm." 

And put it this way, we've seen far worse looking systems declared/called a TC.  So where is the meteorological consistency here?

Loop here:
https://x.com/WxTca/status/1615532584016162822

Sfc and SST analysis 
https://x.com/burgwx/status/1615099242728628231
 

That is a clear eye and quite deep convection for Jan.  I got T4.5 on it (77 kt) using Dvorak.  Now granted, SSTs were 21-23 C, so that means less efficient mixing down of winds aloft, but still 65 kt is likely here.  Notice when it approached Sable Island crossing a very sharp SST gradient, it actually looked best!  The center passed just W of Sable island which recorded sustained winds of 49 kt.  That was over much cooler SSTs, so again, when it was farther SW over 21-23 C, 65 kt would be easy.

This is not armchair quarterbacking, nitpicking, or a borderline TC situation.  This system's nature was obvious and screaming at you, and the model fcsts handled its ET to T transition warm seclusion very well), so this was not a "surprise."

Like I have said, call wx phenomena for what they are in real-time.  The atmosphere doesn't care about human-imposed rules or what we think, it does what it does, and we all look at the same data, so by doing this, you prevent push back/calling out/criticism to yourself!  

And I see on this forum, ppl sometimes say, "I can't believe it hasn't been declared yet"  or "it obviously stronger (weaker) than that!"  That's not just random complaints/musings all the time, many times such statements and observations have merit or are true!

[vortex95]

Talk about threading the needle.  That anticyclonic cirrus shear plume is right on the doorstep of the core, and yet no shearing of the convection over the core.

One thing about seasons like this, the TCs are often small.  TD6 exemplifies this.  At first glance in vacuum, you look at the EIR image below of the Atlantic, and go, "where is it?!"  Areas of convection exists sig larger than TD6 here!