2026-2027 Super El Nino

[EasternLI]

Looking at the SST changes vs last year at this time would give you the impression this is an entire Pacific ocean event. Pretty wild. Which is interesting too because the entire ocean is really making all of the right moves towards a +IPO. Or interdecadal pacific oscillation. Which would include a longer term +PDO. The south pacific especially, but the NH is trying too apparently. Not much reason to think that wouldn't continue given everything either. Going to be a really impressive event to watch. Already is. Can we flip the longer term pacific too? It's been negative for quite some time. I envision that would take a monster event to set in motion. Or at least look like one. I could be wrong of course, but it so happens we have one... Fascinating. 

 

 

Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep12358

 

[GaWx]

 OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):

 

 What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be really interesting see how the Aleutian low develops with the rare July displacement into Alaska for such a strong El Niño.

This is the first developing super El Niño with such a low July PNA since 1972. While the sample size is very small, that event featured one of the most unusual winter Aleutian low patterns for such a strong El Niño up to that time.

Significantly colder era back then and this El Niño is much more intense. 
 

July PNA during developing super El Niños 

2023.. +1.15

2015…+0.76

1997….+0.56

1982…+0.97

1972….-0.76

Yeah, you know what's going on. I'd give the % chance of something like that happening like 5-10% right now. 

[raindancewx]

The PNA is negative to barely positive in July in a lot of the big El Ninos on this data set.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/pna.data

2023: +0.65

2015: +0.29

1997: +0.10

1982: +0.49

1972:   -1.13

July was negative in 2018, 1963, 1965, 2004, etc along with 1972

Was also negative in Aug 1997.

 

[snowman19]

The OHC is all the way up to +2.8C. We have blown away 1997’s record of +2.5C