2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess so, since it's North Atlantic....I'll probably add it to the polar section in the full outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Reading quickly, cold AMO favors stronger PV, warm weaker. I have to brush up on that.

[Jebman]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong. 

I am going to be in rainy El Nino Heaven all autumn, winter and spring with that RAGING RECORD NINO STJ!

This calls for an outright Brobdingnagian Wooo-Hoooo!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

Obviously, I understand that if you reach through....but I'm not sure how to avoid that with an analog composite. Not to mention this isn't a winter forecast composite....it's a preliminary polar domain composite in July.

Anyway, I did address this within the narrative.

The correction to watch for in verification is higher heights over the southeast and an expansion of the Canadian ridge to the southeast, as lower heights in the vicinity of the southeastern CONUS has been a bias during this modern era. This also applies to the preliminary polar analog composite.

 

All of that being said, if it is still possible to pop a strong GOA low in the seasonal mean, this El Niño will do it.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

What I did tonight is just one part of what will be the full outlook...I also do a whole section on the extra tropical Pacific, which I haven't even touched yet. I also consider some sensible weather analogs from the summer across the country...this is just the first piece to the puzzle.

[raindancewx]

So the new AMO data is not de-trended like the old AMO data I used. If you de-trend it for time/global warming, correlation (r-squared) is over 0.8 between the two data sets for Nov-Apr.

I also converted the PDO data back to the old Nate Mantua/JISAO methodology which ran about +0.5 more positive (2014-15 was +2.07 from Nov-Apr by that method, now shows as +1.59).

Converted to the old methodology, where PDO was +2.07 and not +1.59 in 2014-15, I'd expect PDO in the -0.25 to +0.25 range for Nov-Apr (but it will show as -0.75 to -0.25 probably on the current methodology overall).

AMO looks like it will be in the +0.20 range. Even with the de-trending, AMO was bonkers in 2023-24, +0.60 for Nov-Apr, warmest ever v. baseline and long-term trends. Part of why the 1972-73 pattern held (warmest NE 1/4 US, much colder elsewhere) but not the actual temperature pattern that year (much hotter).

It's also really interesting seeing how weird the last solar cycle was in retrospect. We're quite similar to the down-slope of the cycle that peaked in 1968-1969 at 155 (we peaked at 149 in 2024-25).

The QBO data stopped in Feb 2026. However, the six most similar years to 2025 for QBO, by objective absolute value measure are:

2014 then 1972 then 2021 then 1974 then 1979 then 1958.

The winters starting 2015, 1973, 2022, 1975, 1980, 1959 are all +QBO winters in the +0 to +10 range.

El Ninos in that QBO range are 1957, 1963, 1969, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2004, 2006, 2015, 2018.

The Jamstec believe it or not has the Modoki index reaching +0.95 or so for Dec-Feb, v. +0.5 forecast for Dec-Feb forecast in July 2023 for Dec 2023-Feb 2024. I think it will trend lower, but its probably recognizing (correctly) that this event will decay rapidly in late winter from east to west, with the warmth maybe peaking in Nino 3.4 in Nov/Dec/Jan and then retreating to Nino 4 in Jan-Mar before collapsing in Summer. I'll guess +0.65 for the Modoki index.

I lean toward something like this now that my old analog system is fully up to date. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty cold stretch in the East later in the winter, probably late-Feb to mid-Mar for about three weeks if I had to guess when you do briefly see pretty ideal Modoki conditions. I think Dec-Feb overall is pretty warm almost everywhere, especially North, even with a few intense, but brief cold snaps.

Winter	ONI DJF	AMO N-A	Sun Jul-Jun	ONI DJF(p)	Modoki	PDO N-A	Monsoon	QBO DJF	Weight
1963	0.8	-0.036	29.1	-0.4	0.48	-0.88	5.06	4.9	x1
1982	2.3	-0.156	129.2	0.0	-0.49	0.95	3.84	10.9	x3
1997	2.3	0.220	54.9	-0.4	-0.66	1.24	6.58	-1	x1
2004	0.5	0.222	55.3	0.3	0.48	0.47	4.06	0.3	x1
2015	2.6	0.211	55.8	0.6	0.32	1.70	5.02	9.2	x2
2018	0.9	0.049	5.5	-0.8	0.41	0.51	4.84	8.8	x2
Blend	1.75	0.05	64.96	-0.09	0.03	0.81	4.69	7.29	x10
Target	3.20	0.15	75.00	-0.40	0.65	0.30	3.67	5

Long-term, since Nino 3.4 is a stronger warm signal in the North and weaker in the south, the composite should actually be more extreme than depicted by the blend I used -

If you exaggerate the features of the winter to account for record setting warmth in Nino 3.4, I think you end up with something like this. Very warm in the North, still actually pretty snowy, and not really cold anywhere. I think we'll likely have a pretty cold December in the Southwest, and that's maybe the most extreme cold temperature month for the winter nationally.

Sort of a joke map - but my current rough idea.

Look at December - I think it will be warmer than this - by a lot in the warm areas and likely colder in the SW by quite a bit too.

Now look at the Jamstec and the composite. The east-based look is real and present. But it will likely be breaking down by mid Nov to mid Jan. I'm not warm enough for the Nino zones - you can't get a +3.0 to +3.5C in Nino 3.4 with the anomalies. But I essentially was able to validate that the Jamstec isn't crazy. It has a canonical +PNA - very warm NW/cool SE. I don't quite think we get that with the AMO / PDO as they are.

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/24/2026 at 10:14 AM, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

Unfortunately starting from a record low in winter will have this happen. The area of 80N and even close to 70N has been near normal or below normal temp wise most of the summer thus far. This is what you want to see in a good retention year but again starting point always matters. If this holds into August we should continue to slide above that 2012 number and get more inline with recent years probably 6-8th lowest roughly.

Im honestly surprised more so we didn't take a massive hit this year but presume next year will likely start another leg down. Fingers are crossed it doesn't.

[snowman19]

It’s basically a guarantee that the models get even stronger with the El Niño on the August runs. This ongoing WWB is record-breaking, literally off the charts and the current DWKW is gaining strength….



Subsurface: 2026 vs. 1997 vs. 2015 vs. 2023: