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2026-2027 Super El Nino


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Cold 500mb lows spinning out over the Arctic circle for the next 15 days. In my opinion, until we break the Arctic Ice melt record from 2012, we are going to be in decadal -PDO. July has also been super wet here in this post-2017, 60-90N -SLP pattern. It will be very interesting to see what the Arctic pattern is next Summer after the Super Nino warms global temps, and the Solar Cycle wanes. 

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21 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Hell Yeah! Let's go set us a 300,000 year record with this Nino!

I want to get so much rain in Texas! I want moisture feeds straight from the Equator and storm systems to just stall over south central Texas for days and days and days and days!

I want a truly BROBDINGNAGIAN amount of rain from this thru June 2027!

July has been a really wet month since 2017, so it might have less to do with the El Nino and more to do with the pattern. We'll find out after this month I think. 

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7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The CFS has been hinting at this possibility based on its very sharp record-paced cooling of 3.4 from Dec to Mar.

CFS has a huge trend bias. I would like to see cooler subsurface waters start to appear. 

It significantly precedes. I remember seeing an image of Dec 1972 where the whole subsurface was extremely cold during Super Nino. 

3-8-2024.png

4-4-2024.png

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Makes sense. For about 50 years (before 2015-16), many of the strongest el ninos were followed by the strongest la ninas:

1972-73 super el nino -> 1973-76 la nina (with 1973-74 and 1975-76 being strong la ninas)

1982-83 super el nino -> 1983-85 la nina

1986-88 strong el nino -> 1988-89 strong la nina

1997-98 super el nino -> 1998-2001 la nina (with 1998-2000 being a strong la nina)

2009-10 strong el nino -> 2010-12 la nina (with 2010-11 being a strong la nina)

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