2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I agree, but there are signs of troughiness forming in the east and ridging out west on the 12z Eps. You can see it happening if you put this link in motion.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071212&fh=0

Maybe neutral in the Pacific. It's all High pressure at the very end

Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe neutral. It's all High pressure at the very end

Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant

Well, that slow change may just be as a result of the fast warming. Give it some time before dropping the lifeboats.lifeboat.

Edit: Iow, the atmosphere just may need time to catch up to a Niño that has warmed as fast as this one.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm just thinking a 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 monster North Pacific High low pressure may be a thing of the past. Those were monster troughs, Super El Nino driven. 

Does the PDO really make that much of a difference?

-PDO strongest 3 El Nino's. A little different south of the Aleutians lol

[GaWx]

How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
 

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places:

1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long):
ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN  

  

SITE       HIGH TEMP   PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD   PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS  

BILLINGS      111         108 (7/14/2002)                1934  

LIVINGSTON    105         105 (8/5/1961)                 1948  

MILES CITY    115         111 (6/26/2012)                1937  

SHERIDAN      109         107 (7/27/2021)                1907  

BAKER         110         109 (7/25/2024)                1998  

 

2) N UT

..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT  

  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY,   

UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN   

2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE   

RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002,   

2021, AND 2022.  

 

3) E ID:

THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES   

TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100   

DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^

6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. 

Jul-Aug correlation to ENSO. Forgive me for including August but these are the 2 hottest months of the year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there.