2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….
 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just not too strong of a block...PLEASE!!!

Bruh I can't watch the deep south get pummeled again, lol Wonder if 72-73 had strong blocking that produced that snowstorm down there?

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bruh I can't watch the deep south get pummeled again, lol Wonder if 72-73 had strong blocking that produced that snowstorm down there?

Moderate +NAO

1973  2  1  0.250
1973  2  2  0.252
1973  2  3  0.237
1973  2  4  0.525
1973  2  5  0.834
1973  2  6  0.944
1973  2  7  0.807
1973  2  8  0.672
1973  2  9  0.656
1973  2 10  0.718
1973  2 11  0.924

Moderate to strong +AO

1973  2  1  1.868
1973  2  2  1.709
1973  2  3  0.930
1973  2  4  0.511
1973  2  5  1.958
1973  2  6  2.915
1973  2  7  2.326
1973  2  8  1.437
1973  2  9  1.385
1973  2 10  1.560

Neutral to weak +PNA

1973  2  1  0.304
1973  2  2  0.161
1973  2  3  0.229
1973  2  4  0.295
1973  2  5  0.179
1973  2  6 -0.004
1973  2  7 -0.097
1973  2  8  0.154
1973  2  9  0.349
1973  2 10  0.166

 

Moderate to strong -EPO

1973 02 01   74.97
1973 02 02  -15.68
1973 02 03 -165.84
1973 02 04 -262.56
1973 02 05 -228.20
1973 02 06 -209.60
1973 02 07 -231.67
1973 02 08 -209.49
1973 02 09 -159.81
1973 02 10  -29.44

Neutral to weak +WPO

1973 02 01  247.35
1973 02 02  202.33
1973 02 03  119.68
1973 02 04   71.22
1973 02 05   36.31
1973 02 06    9.54
1973 02 07   -8.75
1973 02 08  -19.39
1973 02 09    0.37
1973 02 10   21.42

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….
 

Thanks, Adam. Note how much the WPAC has cooled from Korean Pen. to E of Japan! Also, check out the impressive N Atlantic cooling! That ATL cooling along with cooling tropics (-AMO trend) may be indicative of a major pattern change toward colder E US winters coming up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Ray, Good advice! I’m careful with potential bias of forecasts from any source, especially internet based looking for clicks or likes ($).

 This source is putting some emphasis on the cooling N Atlantic and AMO decline tendencies as an additional important factor to consider for especially the E US, something I haven’t seen a whole lot here and elsewhere (not specifically you though). So, this gives a different perspective (both Atlantic and Pacific influences) from most discussions I’ve seen with lots of support from both historic data and latest forecasts from 3 of the most widely followed seasonal models, none of which are warm this winter as a whole for the bulk of the E US. Also, note that this article from a European source also includes warm maps for the upcoming European winter.

raindance has stated that -AMO cold lead to a cold winter for the country.....I'm not saying there isn't any truth to that, it's just that that site tends to seeks out avenues to cold IMO.