2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking? 

The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. 

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. 

We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST)

 

The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST)

 

The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C

Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too. 

 

[snowman19]

54 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too. 

 

IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event

@roardog Yes on the +PDO

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event

Do you think we will flip to a +PDO this year?

[raindancewx]

No PDO flip this year. If you call 1957/1958 spiking positive in the -PDO cycle prior as the same point as 2014/2015, we're around 1968 now. We're within a decade, as it's not exact, but I'd bet the PDO doesn't average positive for Nov-Apr. We're probably in something like 1965-66 El Nino strength at 1968 timing cyclically, which was a big El Nino about a decade from the +PDO flip. I'd expect continuing regression toward 0 and a month or two may poke above it, but Nov-Apr won't be over 0.

AMO on the other hand...might be this year. Atlantic in May is night and day different to 2023.

The colder water by NZ v. 2023 also bodes well for more typical El Nino conditions in the West. Cold/Colder AMO is a decent wet signal and cold signal in winter for a lot of the US.