LakePaste25 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago beware of using the MEI. During Super Nino events, it tends to be a weenie index and is biased towards central pacific events. RONI vs. ONI are the bread and butter for this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding They’re not mentioning that the Euro has had a warm bias though it’s lowest for an actual Nino (few ticks on average with a couple almost perfect). May run has almost never verified too cool. They’re probably not aware of this bias. You won’t be less you study the verifications going back aways like I did. Of course even a warm bias doesn’t mean it will definitely verify colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago They’re not mentioning that the Euro has had a warm bias though it’s lowest for an actual Nino (few ticks on average with a couple almost perfect). May run has almost never verified too cool. They’re probably not aware of this bias. You won’t be less you study the verifications going back aways like I did. Of course even a warm bias doesn’t mean it will definitely verify colder. ^ “Worth noting that while the ECMWF has had a high bias in some ENSO forecasts in past springs, so far the forecasts from earlier this spring are verifying quite nicely with the rapid evolution towards +ENSO. In past bust cases (like 2017 and 2022), the warm bias was already evident by May. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around. Doesn't mean the model is perfect, but there's also no evidence of a major bust this time around.” 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding Yeah. I’m not sure it’s showing a +PDO like he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: beware of using the MEI. During Super Nino events, it tends to be a weenie index and is biased towards central pacific events. RONI vs. ONI are the bread and butter for this IMO. Im sorry but that is just not true, look at 97/98 as the example right on the money. There is a key thing within the variables it is picking up on that is causing it to be lower versus ONI/RONI. This seemed to have switched up around 09/10 season onward. In fact you could even argue it was pretty darn close for the 15/16 super Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 40 minutes ago Author Share Posted 40 minutes ago MEI vs Nino 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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