2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

On 5/2/2026 at 1:40 PM, GaWx said:

 Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:

 

 

My leaning of the weekly relative 3.4 going up from +0.2 in last week’s release to +0.4 in today’s turned out to be what happened for its 4th rise in a row. Nino 1+2 cooled again (by 0.2) to +0.7. Nino 3, like Nino 3.4, rose for the 4th week in a row to +0.5. Nino 4 was unchanged at +0.5. So far, it’s not behaving as if it is headed to strongly E based this autumn. Cansips has been suggesting central to W based with E (1+2 to 3) not as warm as C to W (3.4 to 4), but we’ll see as there’s a long way to go:

Date (avg for wk centered on)………………....1+2………..3………..3.4………..4

 01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5

 ——————-

 The latest SSTa charts suggest a pause, which is long overdue, MAY finally be occurring temporarily:

 

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive to see the upper ocean heat anomalies this week higher than at any point during the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events. 
 

 

I would like to see how this actually translates to surface readout coming up.

[GaWx]

 The April and FMA relative and non-relative have just been released and they suggest the most recently calculated differential is ~0.6C:

1. FMA:

ONI +0.11

RONI -0.48

0.59 diff vs 0.56 diff. JFM

 

2. April alone:

ONI +0.36

RONI -0.24

0.60 diff. vs 0.55 in March

[PhiEaglesfan712]

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

The slight lowering from March does though jibe with the slight downward trend of these WCS dailies:

[snowman19]

Yet another major WWB is gearing up, which will generate yet another DWKW. And there are hints of EPAC TC activity starting up, which generate more WWBs in their wake. If there was any doubt left that we are destined for a super El Niño (IMO a top 3 super Nino), this should put it to rest

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone noticed, but since start of May FWIW, the Cfs2, which had been pretty AN for the winter, has backed down on the warmth quite a bit. Notwithstanding the usual long range Cfs2  caveats, it is, at least, a bit of a nod to the Cansips even if it still has a way to go. Here's a link to the latest 5H and surface temps starting at December.  If you compare December and January to late April runs, you'll see what I mean. February's forecast just started showing up on May 1.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026050406&fh=7