2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[CoastalWx]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That may very well happen, but I would think that is what guidance would be showing at this point, regardless.....first of all, those runs default towards ENSO in the longer term, secondly, they are usually adjust to stratospheric phenomena had a pretty lethargic pace. This is why I spent 5-6 months telling people that that big +TNH pattern was going to develop late last January, despite guidance looking to protract that mid month mild period at times.....slow to adjust to the reflection event that I knew was coming in July.

I was more or less referring to the weeklies. I think they would be showing some hints of a pattern change if the Strat was showing signs of coupling. 

[bluewave]

Major flooding in Florida during what is normally a dry month there with how extreme this east based forcing is becoming.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is exactly what I mean and why I bring up 2001 as another analog.

I have no idea what you mean. I don't see how or why that is an analog in any way, shape or form, aside from the fact that it's likely to be a mild winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Evidence growing to support your guess that this warming event never actually downwells to the bottom of the stratosphere and couples with the troposphere, then rapidly strengthens again into early December

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, that is a lock considering it's a "bottom-up" phenomenon...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I was more or less referring to the weeklies. I think they would be showing some hints of a pattern change if the Strat was showing signs of coupling. 

Not necessarily....but I'm with you, I still think December is mild...too much evidence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not necessarily....but I'm with you, I still think December is mild...too much evidence.

I will say I think this bolsters confidence that it won't be as warm as 2015, but I don't think it will be "wintry".