Typhoon Tip Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 95 faded west...it was more east-based, pretty much evenly distributed at peak. Fwiprobablynotworth ... this ACME road-runner show quality graphic over at CPC seems to suggest there's a secondary +anomaly node ( if not primary...) situated around the 3.4 ... interestingly trying to connect to the marine heat wave going on around San Diego ... The nearby coastal cooling astride El Salvador - I suspect - is an artifact of the enhanced TC trafficking over the last 1.5 months running up just W of that area and imposing offshore SS stressing ..speculation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 30 minutes ago Share Posted 30 minutes ago 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fwiprobablynotworth ... this ACME road-runner show quality graphic over at CPC seems to suggest there's a secondary +anomaly node ( if not primary...) situated around the 3.4 ... interestingly trying to connect to the marine heat wave going on around San Diego ... The nearby coastal cooling astride El Salvador - I suspect - is an artifact of the enhanced TC trafficking over the last 1.5 months running up just W of that area and imposing offshore SS stressing ..speculation. Yes, that is the dual forcing I have been alluding to...it's from about 130-150 degrees longitude....I think early on, the eastern node will dominate, then we will see more variability beginning beyond the ides of January, as that western node starts to constructively interfere with some other aspects at higher latitudes in addition to ENSO perhaps leaking westward a bit overall/weakening at that juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point. Would basin wide still be on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said: Would basin wide still be on the table? In the seasonal mean? No....I don't think so. I mean, technically speaking, it's basin-wide now, but I would certainly consider it heavily eastern biased...it will probably grow somewhat more evenly distributed around mid season before perhaps collapsing back eastward early next spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 minutes ago Share Posted 4 minutes ago 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. ... ... ... One aspect I've been coveting that has me deeply concerned for the state of public mental health/America Forum winter zealotry ( eh hm), is a notion that I haven't heard any one or source mention. Speculatively: the STJ may end up N of the climatological normal latitudes - as a mean ... For the general reader ... try to be nuanced aware and open idiosyncratic minded about how nature actually works for a minute here. We're talking about integrating behaviors, and the integral will contain examples both subtle and gross. It may not be overly obvious at all times... Sometimes yes, other times no. But in that integrated mean, could suggest a "lean" on the polar side of canonical. Events tend to go left (say). Warm penetration events a bit more robust than mid range model means - I suspect AI sources, which don't bear any compunctions ( haha ) would be unabashed. Something like that is already tantalizingly suggestive in the current Euro-AI version matter of fact... As an aside, something I'm noticing about AI so far in it's techno-infancy ... it seems to be on the amplified lean of all possibilities when looking at specifics. If whatever aspect is driving the -PDO continues, I still personally believe that needs to persist. That "tension" may be our best hope for that population of d-drippers has to happen to prevent voting self-destructively for the wrong people. haha. No but (CC base +historic positive ENSO)/2) doesn't otherwise intuitively feel hopeful if operating on the hemisphere alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted just now Share Posted just now incredibly early in the season to be seeing this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now