2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[KChuck]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal latest snowfall change this run vs last courtesy Weather Will in the MA forum. No complaints from me!

 

What's with the snow hole in central North Carolina??? 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is the actual anomaly map.

 

25 minutes ago, KChuck said:

What's with the snow hole in central North Carolina??? 

That map I posted was the run-to-run change between September and October Euro seasonal.  The actual snowfall anomaly map is above and that shows AN in that location. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal latest snowfall change this run vs last courtesy Weather Will in the MA forum. No complaints from me!

 

Looks about the same for me....about 15" below average seems reasonable. No complaints.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

is roni going to lower the amount of latent heat that gets released into the climate system and trapped by carbon dioxide? is roni going to keep an eastward displaced north pacific low from flooding the continent with maritime airmasses all winter?

No to the first, but as far as as the second....not the RONI itself, but the disconnect that it represents may to an extent...and that doesn't necessarily mean colder in the east, either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

RONI is not meant to be used for the absolute intensity of this event. It’s more about gradients and storm tracks. With something this historic, it’s the absolute temperatures and water vapor increase that matter which is better reflected by ONI.

 

They why did the 2023 El Niño have a very meager GOA low presence despite a peak ONI of 2.0?

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 10/6/2026 at 6:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I strongly disagree.

In the tropical atmospheric response or just the oni? 

Or both

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

In the tropical atmospheric response or just the oni? 

Or both

That climate change isn't playing a part in this El Nino...the immense OHC that has built up in the west Pacific has absolutely played a rpole in trggiering this response. 

[ensonerd1233e343]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That climate change isn't playing a part in this El Nino...the immense OHC that has built up in the west Pacific has absolutely played a rpole in trggiering this response. 

Yes but im asking about which part of the el nino the absolute tempature (oni) or the gradients and atmospheric response ( mei eqsoi roni)

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

Yes but im asking about which part of the el nino the absolute tempature (oni) or the gradients and atmospheric response ( mei eqsoi roni)

Which part did CC contribute to? All of it....the sole purpose of ENSO is to redistribute heat, so the rapid warming of the climate is acutely relevant in that respect.