George BM Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Cansips on TT (not all products yet) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026100100&fh=0 At first glance on TT the Cansips have peak SST anomalies even warmer for Nov/Dec generally between 125-140W. Peak SSTAs are a little further east compared to last month but still pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 15 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: This plot is not consistent with 2 m temperature being 2 C below the much older 1958 to 2002 climatology all summer. This area is all ocean/ice. This was from the temp website https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf I use 925mb specifically to not get temperature but more so to see the pattern associated to this region in specific thus I will continue to use 925mb as a better representation of what is going on. This was a retention year in that the overall atmospheric pattern was on the colder side. Unfortunately I don't think we will get fairly accurate measurements of the lowest 1000' or so in this region due to the complex nature involved with sea ice/ oceanic exchange issues with the lower atmsophere. You will read this within the first paragraph as to the issues involved. Another factor is the slushification that is taking place throws another wrench into getting an accurate surface reading. 2006 and 2013 were also solid retention years. The time period of roughly mid April to end of June will continue to be an extremely important time to gauge how the melt season will go. There is a glaring difference when comparing ERA5 of 2013 to 2026 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago @40/70 Benchmark Cansips D-M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 48 minutes ago, mitchnick said: @40/70 Benchmark Cansips D-M That looks best in December and gets progressively worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That looks best in December and gets progressively worse. Yes, but 500mb, temps and precip look ok. Check the winter thread in your forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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