2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know how you can emphatically cite how much MC influence there was in 2023, then dismiss any influence of the central basin this season....yes, El Nino is stronger, but it's not omnipotent, as evidenced by the PDO resistance owed to the Japanese warm pool.

Anyway, we'll see what happens....good chatting, as always.

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

 

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

 

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

No doubt...the issue is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No doubt...the is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

 Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.

I think we all would take anything over MC forcing, which is the worst.....another thing to think about is if this El Nino is strong enough to pull all of the forcing east, as Chris seems to imply, then that would eradicate any MC influence....which he has stated in the past has acted to accentuate the warmth in recent El Nino events relative to past events, so this season could end up a bit cooler due to that....lots to think about. A bit of MC influence could leak into central forcing, but not east.

[GaWx]

 Were in another very long -SOI streak, 47 days!

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[GaWx]

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

[Yanksfan]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

Despite how strong this El Niño gets its influence over the pattern will be restricted due to the fact that it’s not coupled. Expect a wide range of variables with the overall pattern this winter.