2026-2027 El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Remember, 1982 didn’t reach this level of heat until October. Plus even 2015-2016 only peaked at 1.91 and not until October.

15-16 actually peaked at 1.97 in August:

2015    8     0.99      1.43       1.97
2015    9     1.04      1.48       1.80
2015   10     1.04      1.51       1.91

[GaWx]

^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI.

@bluewave @snowman19

[GaWx]

 The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon:

Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4

08APR2026         1.1       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[GaWx]

 The latest BoA relative was just released. As expected, it cooled way down from the April Nino 3.4 prog of +0.6 as it is now a much more realistic -0.2 (that actually will likely end up slightly too cool as I expect it verify -0.1 to 0.0). However, despite that marked cooling of April, it warmed for its Sept prog from ~+2.35 to +2.6. Also, this is the first run with Oct, which it has at ~+2.85.
 
 On the one hand, one should keep in mind how much it overdid ONI in 2023. OTOH, this latest has RONI near the level it had ONI in 2023. So, although we should be aware of a quite possible warm bias at play here thus causing the RONI prog to be overstated, we should also be aware that it is currently implicitly progging ~0.5C warmer RONI vs 2023. Keep in mind that RONI peaked at only ~+1.5 in 2023-4. We’re very likely headed to a significantly warmer RONI peak in 2026-7:

BoA RONI prog from 2 weeks ago: a ridiculous +0.6 April and a +2.35 Sept:

 

Today’s BoA RONI prog: much more realistic cooler -0.2 April but Sept a warmer +2.6; first run with Oct (+2.85):

[PhiEaglesfan712]

OHC peaks - strong/super el ninos

1982-83: 2.07 (October)

1986-88: 1.22 (January 1987)

1991-92: 1.98 (February)

1997-98: 2.56 (October)

2009-10: 1.75 (November)

2015-16: 1.97 (August)

2023-24: 1.45 (November)

[snowman19]

 The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon:
Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4
08APR2026         1.1       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I agree that we are going to see big warming coming up with the massive DWKW that has just begun propagating east from the WPAC and the continued WWBs.

Also, already seeing signs of a strong +IOD forming with the robust cooling around Australia. That’s going to constructively interfere with the ongoing Nino development/Bjerknes feedback

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

OHC peaks - strong/super el ninos

1982-83: 2.07 (October)

1986-88: 1.22 (January 1987)

1991-92: 1.98 (February)

1997-98: 2.56 (October)

2009-10: 1.75 (November)

2015-16: 1.97 (August)

2023-24: 1.45 (November)

If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño 

I have the most recent CFS RONI mean peak at near the 1982-3 record of +2.5 rather than +2.7:

It is the monthly of Nov that peaks near +2.7, which is near the 1982-3 monthly peak of +2.69 (Jan peak):

 

 So, the most recent CFS has warmed to a 1982-3 redux in strength.