2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs.  >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs.  >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m

That’s from the massive DWKW Paul Roundy and Eric Webb talked about over the weekend. It’s going to advect and slosh east through Ekman pumping just like they all do.

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Let's see if it makes it all the way to Nino 1+2

[snowman19]

Models still showing a robust +IOD developing over the coming months

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino

Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's:

6-14 day CPC forecast

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years. 

[roardog]

What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx. 

Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions. 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs.  >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m

Exactly the type of analogs I was speculating on. 2002 is similar, but obviously weaker. I think the issue will be the NAO...1991-1992 was awful because it was the only strongly positive NAO/weakly -PDO, which we may very well have this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[GaWx]

 This illustrates how much warmer the surrounding tropical areas were during 2023-4, which means a RONI significantly cooler than ONI due to the lowered contrast:

 

 Look at the much larger contrast in 1982-3:

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1957 is best subsurface map in terms of placement AND intensity of subsurface warm pool. It's also a good polar analog in terms of solar and QBO.