2026-2027 El Nino

[roardog]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The more central-based super warm ENSO of 2015 triggered the development of the warm pool, just as I believe a super-eastern biased El Nino would eradicate it.

Oh no. That means if we get central based event this year it will reinforce the warm pool for the next 40 years. Snowman19 will be posting tweets from Andy Hazelton’s grandkids talking about a SE ridge in 2066. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't really think El Nino's trigger La Nina's and -PDO's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Don't know if it's been mentioned here but NOAA March PDO came in at -1.44. That may not seem like much because we've had so much -2 to -4, but -1.44 is still strongly negative. Top 15-20%. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't really think El Nino's trigger La Nina's and -PDO's. 

That isn't what I said......what I said was the majority of the excessive warmth from the 2015 was stored in the western Pacific, which triggered a default cool ENSO paradigm moving forward.

That being said, there actually is a documented propensity for powerful ENSO events to trigger opposite phases..it's called the delayed oscillation theory. 72-73 was followed by La Nina....1982-1983....followed by la Nina....1997, 2015 and 2023...ditto.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Don't know if it's been mentioned here but NOAA March PDO came in at -1.44. That may not seem like much because we've had so much -2 to -4, but -1.44 is still strongly negative. Top 15-20%. 

Damn, I was expecting it vault positive as soon as the new EURO run modeled a 2.5 ONI next fall.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That being said, there actually is a documented propensity for powerful ENSO events to trigger opposite phases..it's called the delayed oscillation theory. 72-73 was followed by La Nina....1982-1983....followed by la Nina....1997, 2015 and 2023...ditto.

2015 and 2023 didn't really have that swing. We got borderline cold neutrals/weak la ninas out of those. The 1972-73, 1986-88, 1997-98, and 2009-10 events had the big swing going immediately from strong el nino -> strong la nina.

The other way, it doesn't go strong la nina -> strong el nino right away. It seems at least one year is needed in between to make the transition. The closest is 1955-56 strong la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino and 2007-08 strong la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (and that one of course was a quick transition back to strong la nina in 2010-11).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas is at the lowest price since 2024, and NG/Crude Oil and NG/Gasoline spread is near record lows. That's a warm sign (or +NAO favored) for next winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That isn't what I said......what I said was the majority of the excessive warmth from the 2015 was stored in the western Pacific, which triggered a default cool ENSO paradigm moving forward.

That being said, there actually is a documented propensity for powerful ENSO events to trigger opposite phases..it's called the delayed oscillation theory. 72-73 was followed by La Nina....1982-1983....followed by la Nina....1997, 2015 and 2023...ditto.

I think over 500+ years of data there would be no "la nina snap back" in the mean. Something is causing it for the last 100 years though. It would be interesting to know what it is. I don't think it's heat release or anything like that. People describe the transition that has happened, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because of the first part. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Damn, I was expecting it vault positive as soon as the new EURO run modeled a 2.5 ONI next fall.

We haven't had a single +PDO month yet this decade, in the 2020s. Maybe it will happen with El Nino but I don't know that it will deviate very far from weak.