2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Seems strange to me that the western equarltorial Pacific has cooled over the last 7 days west of the dateline. Any ideas? The wwb is to last around 10 days per Cfs2 starting around the 17th. But I expected it to be warming west of the dateline. The cooling is on 2 different maps, though more apparenton one than the other.

Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop

 

 

 

+IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095

 

 

[bluewave]

Great write up from ECMWF on how to interpret the recent El Nino forecast so early in the development process.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2026/el-nino-2026

[snowman19]

This is very likely to be a record-breaking typhoon season in the PAC

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There was a great weather observer living in Newark back in those days. The NJ climate office added all the data to the climate record recently. The beauty of these records is that it matches other overlapping accounts from that era. The average snowfall during that era was 44.0” with a DJF average temperature of 30.4°.

While this winter was the coldest and snowiest at Newark and other stations in over a decade, the temperatures were still warmer than  30 year average for that era. The snowfall this winter was a little higher than the 30 year mean for that era.

Plus they measured snowfall less frequently in the old days compared to today. So the actual seasonal totals could have been around 15 to 20 percent higher if they used the current snowfall measurement techniques. 

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

Monthly a seasonal Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.8	9.4	12.1	12.6	7.3	1.8	44.0
1872-1873	0.0	4.0	25.1	14.1	23.3	2.2	3.0	71.7
1871-1872	0.0	T	8.5	2.0	5.0	8.5	T	24.0
1870-1871	0.0	T	5.0	16.0	16.1	1.3	2.0	40.4
1869-1870	T	T	8.1	1.8	8.5	11.0	3.0	32.4
1868-1869	T	0.0	9.5	11.0	12.0	5.0	0.6	38.1
1867-1868	0.0	T	15.5	23.8	14.0	15.0	7.0	75.3
1866-1867	0.0	T	7.0	23.5	15.5	17.5	T	63.5
1865-1866	0.0	0.0	13.1	11.8	8.0	1.5	T	34.4
1864-1865	0.0	0.3	26.0	10.5	12.5	T	0.0	49.3
1863-1864	0.0	T	4.3	7.0	1.0	7.0	T	19.3
1862-1863	0.0	6.5	8.0	10.0	13.0	10.9	1.8	50.2
1861-1862	0.0	1.0	1.0	12.0	25.5	4.6	6.0	50.1
1860-1861	0.0	T	7.0	20.6	1.3	17.0	2.0	47.9
1859-1860	3.0	0.0	5.1	11.3	25.0	2.5	T	46.9
1858-1859	0.0	5.5	6.5	12.3	15.8	6.0	T	46.1
1857-1858	0.0	T	4.5	1.8	10.5	10.5	T	27.3
1856-1857	0.0	0.5	4.3	28.1	2.1	17.0	0.0	52.0
1855-1856	0.0	T	9.0	32.8	5.0	11.0	0.0	57.8
1854-1855	0.0	T	8.0	18.5	16.0	2.5	T	45.0
1853-1854	0.0	M	14.5	15.0	23.5	2.8	13.5	69.3
1852-1853	0.0	T	T	15.5	2.3	7.0	T	24.8
1851-1852	0.0	2.0	7.0	20.0	14.0	16.0	4.3	63.3
1850-1851	0.0	0.0	6.0	2.5	3.5	10.5	2.0	24.5
1849-1850	0.0	0.0	11.0	3.0	T	9.0	8.0	31.0
1848-1849	0.0	1.3	24.0	T	13.0	6.0	0.0	44.3
1847-1848	0.0	T	6.0	T	8.0	5.0	T	19.0
1846-1847	0.0	1.5	12.0	10.0	21.0	4.3	0.5	49.3
1845-1846	0.0	T	8.5	16.5	28.0	T	T	53.0
1844-1845	0.0	0.5	6.5	5.5	20.5	5.5	T	38.5
1843-1844	0.0	1.3	9.5	5.5	13.5	1.8	0.0	31.6

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ December to February 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	31.9	28.8	30.4	30.4
1872-1873	24.7	25.1	27.4	25.7
1871-1872	28.4	29.3	29.7	29.1
1870-1871	33.6	26.5	28.6	29.6
1869-1870	32.9	35.8	30.7	33.1
1868-1869	28.2	32.8	33.3	31.4
1867-1868	26.7	26.3	21.7	24.9
1866-1867	30.7	22.9	36.4	30.0
1865-1866	35.2	25.2	29.9	30.1
1864-1865	31.9	22.8	29.2	28.0
1863-1864	31.4	29.5	32.6	31.2
1862-1863	32.7	32.9	31.4	32.3
1861-1862	33.6	27.6	30.0	30.4
1860-1861	28.8	27.8	34.2	30.3
1859-1860	29.3	29.9	28.9	29.4
1858-1859	32.7	29.6	32.6	31.6
1857-1858	37.0	36.0	26.4	33.1
1856-1857	29.8	19.0	35.7	28.2
1855-1856	33.6	21.4	24.0	26.3
1854-1855	28.8	32.3	25.8	29.0
1853-1854	32.8	28.8	30.6	30.7
1852-1853	39.7	30.5	34.9	35.0
1851-1852	27.2	25.5	31.5	28.1
1850-1851	33.8	33.3	36.9	34.7
1849-1850	33.1	34.4	35.1	34.2
1848-1849	39.9	25.8	24.9	30.2
1847-1848	36.3	32.8	30.5	33.2
1846-1847	31.5	30.4	29.7	30.5
1845-1846	27.6	30.2	27.1	28.3
1844-1845	33.0	33.2	31.3	32.5
1843-1844	33.4	25.1	31.3	29.9

 

 

 

Shortly after I posted that I discovered the dataset and I must say its very impressive to have an actual consistent record of snow/temp/precip pre-1870. I would kill to have that for my area.

As for measuring snow...ive seen that link many times. I've also measured snow for 30 years. Pre-1950 we dont know how individual observers measured. Each station mightve had their own method. What i CAN tell you is that clearing at 6 hours mostly affects fluffy lake snow, double digit storms, or a very long duration snowfall. More run of the mill snowfalls without taint the effect is minimal. 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great write up from ECMWF on how to interpret the recent El Nino forecast so early in the development process.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2026/el-nino-2026

Chris,

 1. The writeup you linked us to specifies what we already knew: the U.S. now incorporates RONI for its official ENSO updates vs the Euro still not doing so. So, to approximate RONI based on the current difference, ~0.5C should be subtracted from the Euro progs since they are still predicting a straight ONI.

2. The following shows that although the Euro’s too warm ASO ONI prog was highest for April progs in 2017 (+1.4), it was also significantly too warm in 2025 (+0.8), 2022 (+0.7), 2021 (+0.6), 2020 (+0.8), 2014 (+1.2), and 2012 (+0.6). Moreover, misses to the cold side were much less frequent and smaller. So, based on averaging out the misses, a notable warm bias is evident although it isn’t as large when El Niño actually verifies. None of this means ONI will definitely verify colder than the April Euro prog, but rather to not be surprised if it verifies several tenths colder based on a bias corrected ONI prog:

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

I’ll compare 2026 to others.

 Here’s 2026 with its first strong -SOI period not til days 98-102:

2026  98 1010.27 1010.30  -17.45

2026  99 1009.30 1011.45  -32.74

2026 100 1009.19 1011.45  -33.53

2026 101 1009.56 1011.00  -27.62

2026 102 1010.69 1010.75  -17.67

 

1) 1994: already had strong -SOI days 75-90:

1994  75 1009.95 1009.25  -16.33

1994  76 1011.21 1009.00   -9.08

1994  77 1010.30 1008.65  -11.78

1994  78 1009.25 1009.30  -19.92

1994  79 1009.33 1009.25  -19.32

1994  80 1010.65 1008.60   -9.86

1994  81 1011.61 1009.45   -9.32

1994  82 1012.00 1010.25  -11.30

1994  83 1010.73 1009.80  -15.23

1994  84 1009.74 1010.30  -22.37

1994  85 1011.13 1011.00  -19.08

1994  86 1012.49 1011.90  -16.86

1994  87 1012.66 1011.95  -16.27

1994  88 1012.31 1012.15  -18.90

1994  89 1012.79 1011.85  -15.19

1994  90 1012.12 1011.85  -18.36

2) 1997: already had strong -SOI days 81-90:

1997  81 1011.33 1011.55  -20.69

1997  82 1009.53 1010.25  -23.08

1997  83 1009.46 1010.35  -23.92

1997  84 1009.17 1010.95  -28.17

1997  85 1009.38 1011.65  -30.50

1997  86 1008.01 1011.85  -38.04

1997  87 1007.55 1011.15  -36.91

1997  88 1010.10 1010.60  -22.07

1997  89 1011.92 1011.00  -15.24

1997  90 1011.97 1010.55  -12.85

 

3) 2002: already had strong -SOI days 72-80

2002  72 1010.71 1012.50  -28.24

2002  73 1010.25 1011.40  -25.18

2002  74 1011.11 1011.10  -19.62

2002  75 1010.70 1010.90  -20.63

2002  76 1009.60 1010.35  -23.27

2002  77 1010.04 1010.55  -22.13

2002  78 1012.20 1010.55  -11.78

2002  79 1013.25 1010.20   -5.07

2002  80 1010.45 1008.90  -12.26

 

4) 2004: already had strong -SOI days 87-97

2004  87 1010.56 1010.65  -20.11

2004  88 1009.84 1011.25  -26.42

2004  89 1009.20 1011.25  -29.49

2004  90 1008.64 1011.75  -34.56

2004  91 1007.47 1011.75  -40.16

2004  92 1006.10 1012.30  -61.94

2004  93 1005.85 1012.25  -63.38

2004  94 1006.74 1011.55  -51.92

2004  95 1005.93 1011.20  -55.23

2004  96 1007.71 1011.00  -40.96

2004  97 1008.59 1010.60  -31.73

5) 2014: already had strong -SOI days 73-80

2014  73 1010.53 1009.55  -14.98

2014  74 1009.38 1010.70  -25.99

2014  75 1008.55 1009.75  -25.42

2014  76 1009.09 1010.40  -25.94

2014  77 1009.21 1009.75  -22.26

2014  78 1007.89 1010.20  -30.73

2014  79 1007.49 1009.30  -28.34

2014  80 1009.69 1008.25  -12.78

6) 2015: already had strong -SOI days 67-79:

2015  67 1007.50 1008.10  -22.55

2015  68 1008.11 1008.65  -22.26

2015  69 1008.73 1008.20  -17.14

2015  70 1009.33 1008.65  -16.42

2015  71 1009.24 1008.45  -15.89

2015  72 1009.91 1007.55   -8.38

2015  73 1010.42 1007.65   -6.42

2015  74 1010.41 1008.90  -12.45

2015  75 1006.90 1010.15  -35.23

2015  76 1005.66 1009.05  -35.90

2015  77 1008.13 1008.65  -22.16

2015  78 1010.35 1009.55  -15.84

2015  79 1008.79 1011.20  -31.21

7) Even the non-Nino 2012, which psyched out the Euro, had an earlier strong negative period:

2012  90 1011.39 1009.80  -12.06

2012  91 1009.90 1010.70  -23.50

2012  92 1010.45 1011.70  -26.25

2012  93 1012.60 1012.20  -14.35

2012  94 1012.53 1013.55  -24.59

2012  95 1011.19 1013.45  -33.53

2012  96 1010.10 1012.15  -32.01

2012  97 1009.94 1011.85  -31.01

2012  98 1009.98 1011.60  -28.91

2012  99 1010.16 1011.65  -27.98

2012 100 1011.50 1011.45  -16.87

 

 OTOH, 2026’s strong -SOI is ahead of 2006, 2009, 2018, and 2023.