2026-2027 El Nino

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year. 

This one would at least probably act like an E Nino.  23-24 really did not, at least not in the SE US and MA

[brooklynwx99]

for the record, this should be a strong Nino per ONI and even RONI, but taking those +2.5C euro forecasts in early April to heart is silly. wait a couple of months and see if it sticks. the euro has overdone many a Nino in the past

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

How much do the Nina years prior to 23-24 matter though? Wouldn’t that very strong Nino essentially “reset” that?

Last two years were -1.1 and -1.0 RONI, so average of last 3 years is -0.2c/yr.

I've found that 4/6+ same ENSO state shows strong tendency to reverse in the following +1-3 years. Likewise, +3-5 years after a Strong Nino (23-24) has El Nino tendency, so we are kind of hitting this from both angles. 

[George001]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

gotta pass the spring barrier. this is like a 10 day EPS forecast but for ENSO at this point in the year

Yep. A super Nino is possible but we don’t know what is going to happen. A moderate or strong event is possible as well.