2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.

I could see it perhaps hanging near neutral like 2004 or 2009....23-24 remained strongly negative.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.

In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ.  I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I do not expect it be like 2023-2024.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Every month in the 2020s has been -PDO. 74 consecutive months right now. Will it break? Stay tuned! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ.  I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings. 

We've been through that....higher end events are going to leak east. You keep imagining this uber-strong, western biased unicorn...have at it.

Yes, strong events are favorable for rouge blizzards, agreed. I called the 2016 event down to the week on a seasonal level. I am talking about temps and NE overall snowfall...only one that was decent for NE snowfall was 1982, which had somewhat of a -WPO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close.

I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset.  The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset. 

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.

Are you talking RONI peak?

Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Progression of yearly SSTA with January PDO. It doesn't correlate really strong until August. And Aug-Sept-Oct is exponentially higher than Spring/early Summer.. doesn't matter as much through June. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Are you talking RONI peak?

Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

I think he's look at NOAA. He referenced Feb as around -1, which is noaa

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Are you talking RONI peak?

Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

RONI, since ONI is obsolete.

I use this for PDO:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset.  The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset. 

If patterns are getting stuck, maybe we csn continue the luck with plentiful eastern troughing.

[snowman19]

Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring….

[Stormchaserchuck1]

March monthly SOI came in at +7.59.  Since 1950, no >+1.2 later in the year El Nino had a March SOI >5.5 fwiw. Only 1 had SOI >2.1 

Doesn't mean it can't happen, 15 total examples (RONI)

March 1957 -2.7

March 1963 +5.5

March 1965 +2.1

March 1968 -3.6

March 1972 +1.2

March 1982 +0.7

March 1986 -0.3

March 1987 -16.1

March 1991 -10.1

March 1994 -10

March 1997 -7

March 2002 -5.6

March 2009 -1.3

March 2015 -10.7

March 2023 -1.78

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

March 31 Nino 4 is >+0.5... +0.525

This is way ahead of other later in the year >+1.2 El Nino's.. only 2015 and 1997 were greater for the month of April. 

April 1957 -0.06

April 1963 -0.34

April 1965 -0.92

April 1968 -0.46

April 1972 +0.11

April 1982 +0.33

April 1986 -0.34

April 1987 +0.08

April 1991 +0.34

April 1994 +0.11

April 1997 +0.59

April 2002 +0.41

April 2009 -0.26

April 2015 +0.98

April 2023 +0.13

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring….
 

 

 

 

 

Will be interesting to see the Euro seasonal Nino 3.4 forecast on April 5th once it initializes this event. Wouldn’t be surprised if it increases Nino 3.4 temperatures from the March 5th update. If we get these WWBs continuing and not reversing like we saw in June 2014, then this could be our first two events reaching at least +2.0 C on the ONI scale and around 28.57C only three years apart. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

NDJ 2023  28.57   2.06

NDJ 2015  29.26   2.75

OND 1997  29.02   2.40

NDJ 1982  28.76   2.23

NDJ 1972  28.54   2.12