2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting that we have had two consecutive episodes of El Nino that were accompanied by -PDO (2018-2019 and 2023-2024) for the first time since the 1950s (1951-1952 and 1953-1954). The third of warm ENSO of the 1950s was a strong/border line super event. 

Sound familiar?

1957-1958 did not follow that trend.

I can't wait to delve into the stratosphere and solar analogs this summer....this is not the slam-dunk that many are portraying it to be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We did have two in the 1960s, as well (1965-1966 and 1968-1969) my mistake....but 1968-1969 was weak.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We had some good discussions on this topic over the years.

My guess is that the 500 mb ridging associated with the ABNA ridge during 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters was effectively pulled south due to the record mid-latitude marine heatwaves across the North Pacific.

So a much stronger subtropical ridge influence than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This lead to lower heights across the -WPO region in 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 relative to 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

So this stronger subtropical ridge influence may have also contributed to the weaker TPV in the Great Lakes and Northeast and much warmer winters than we got those years. 

Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year.  This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Something like this is happening ( or may be ) all over the planet.   I'm wondering if/when the 2023 air-sea temperature burst might redux. This probably has to be verified by more than one source ( Climate Reanalyzer ) yet, but according to below it's at historic high relative to date, already. That curve it just crossed is 2024, 2023 just beneath. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Shoot I'd HAPPILY take that one for my sub, lol

It was a great winter here as well. It was like the pre party to a fantastic 2005-2015. It was cold and dry west of the lakes though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to me like 1957 is a bit better of a QBO analog, and 2002 a better solar analog....neither one are awful polar analogs, though. 2002-2003 flipped to negative QBO at 30mb and 1957-1958 was right at solar max. 2026-2027 will positive at 30 and 50mb, like 1957-1958, and descending past solar max, like 2002-2003. I see no reason why we should be resigned to an awful winter....locking in an east-based super El Niño is every bit of a wish cast as anything else at this early juncture.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Couldn't 1951-52 and 53-54 be considered part of the same, albeit disjointed, el nino? I find it amazing how the PDO stayed negative during an entire triple-year el nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Couldn't 1951-52 and 53-54 be considered part of the same, albeit disjointed, el nino? I find it amazing how the PDO stayed negative during an entire triple-year el nino.

I see what you are saying based off the RONI, but it didn't hit 0.5 again until February 1953....the MEI actually dipped negative briefly in December 1952 and didn't hit 0.5 again until March. Based on this, the answer is "no"....1952-1953 was neutral.

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html