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Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.


John1122
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HRRR sticking to its guns, shows this being active through 3pm with remarkably similar totals run to run for this area.  Which are actually going up since we already have snow on the ground that it isn't initializing with.

Edit:  Now ripping dimes and nickels!

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5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This isn't quite developing the way the HRRR seems to think it should, which was down the Apps and expanding NW, but a big shield is developing over the Plateau and its heading towards the valley. The radar does look like it's itching to explode down the 75 corridor to the mountains of SE TN. 

It seems to only be picking up the heavier bands

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Looks like the radar is about to light up over TellicoWx soon. It's quickly filling Blount County and extending down into Monroe County now. 

I see that the Tri-Cities has 5+ already and Tys over 2. Hopefully our NE Tn crew us doing well. I hope Holston's snow hole wasn't a thing either. 

John based on what has fallen and what could still yet to fall taking into count hi res models duration left, what do you think areas around Greeneville through Johnson City end up with?

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Just now, Hurricaneguy said:

John based on what has fallen and what could still yet to fall taking into count hi res models duration left, what do you think areas around Greeneville through Johnson City end up with?

I think the 10+ projections from models that way will probably verify. The ratios are incredible so it will really stack up. I can't account for micro climates there because I don't know them like the folks who live there. But I did see that this was overperforming around Bristol at least. And Tri had 5 inches 2 hours ago. 

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5 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I did not expect huge chunky flakes with this system... but I'm over here watching quarters pile up.  It's a beauty.  20.7 degrees.

Yeah I've been getting quarters mixed with smaller flakes.  Then an occasional wind gust blows clouds of blowing snow off my roof and it swirls around.  I'm at about 2 inches now which was the high end of my MRX forecast.

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9 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

I think I'm about to have goose feathers. This is wild. Visibility is probably less than 1/10 mile, just absolutely puking it all out!

According to my RadarScope, you've been under a dark blue umbrella for a long time! It has been impressive. image.thumb.png.708d7d6a9989808c71fd22870e6fb58f.png

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2 minutes ago, Jeff Co Vol said:

According to my RadarScope, you've been under a dark blue umbrella for a long time! It has been impressive. 

I have no idea how to quantify snowfall rates but from watching for the past 20 minutes, this has gotta be well over an inch per hour.

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3 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

I have no idea how to quantify snowfall rates but from watching for the past 20 minutes, this has gotta be well over an inch per hour.

I have a spot where I measure and a spot that I clean off every three hours to measure. That will give you a good idea of your rates. And in cases where the snow is wetter than this, it will give you a better measurement of how much snow actually fell since you won't have as much compaction. 

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Heaviest I've had yet, mostly big flakes at the moment.  I'm really surprised because I thought I might miss the edge of the snow almost completely.  If it does this all night I'm going to bust big.  I'm already passed forecast amount.  Approaching warning criteria.

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Looking at the mosaic radar it seems like it might be slightly rotating counter-clockwise or wobbling right over east TN, sweeping in the southern areas along the way.  Doesn't appear to be going anywhere any time soon, which matches the general look of the HRRR.  

19.8 degrees currently here.  Hope we can keep the chunky flakes with temps in the teens!

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Just now, Stovepipe said:

Looking at the mosaic radar it seems like it might be slightly rotating counter-clockwise or wobbling right over east TN, sweeping in the southern areas along the way.  Doesn't appear to be going anywhere any time soon, which matches the general look of the HRRR.  

It's been crazy how it's just sat in place. The bands, as you guys are now getting to see, are darn fun. That's the best and worst part about ULLs. At times their banding may give an area 6 inches, and 20 miles away that area may only get an inch. 

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