mahk_webstah Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Looked at the euro AIFS this morning. February 5 is very suppressed but February 7 and eighth look kind of interesting although I’m not sure I understand the evolution. Northern Stream low drops down slips off the coast to our southeast while dropping precipitation on all of New England and then when it’s well offshore it hooks and curls up into southeast Canada. Seems like that could evolve into something really interesting possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Looked at the euro AIFS this morning. February 5 is very suppressed but February 7 and eighth look kind of interesting although I’m not sure I understand the evolution. Northern Stream low drops down slips off the coast to our southeast while dropping precipitation on all of New England and then when it’s well offshore it hooks and curls up into southeast Canada. Seems like that could evolve into something really interesting possibly Those will all change by the time we get close…just like this current system did, the takeaway is at least something is there. Details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Next potential on EURO is like a carbon copy of Sunday. Trough digging into the south and a non coherent low skirting off the Virginia/NC coast NE. Obviously can change, but I don’t like seeing the same exact look that screwed up our threat this weekend mucking up the next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Next potential on EURO is like a carbon copy of Sunday. Trough digging into the south and a non coherent low skirting off the Virginia/NC coast NE. Obviously can change, but I don’t like seeing the same exact look that screwed up our threat this weekend mucking up the next I figured something like that had gone down when I saw how few new posts there were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Ensembles are even worse. Thoughts of my fantasy draft are beginning to seep in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ensembles are even worse. Thoughts of my fantasy draft are beginning to seep in... Really? I was hoping it was just OP doing OP things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Long way off..but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Long way off..but whatever. Everyone gets how far off it is....what else is there to talk about, solutions that aren't modeled? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Really? I was hoping it was just OP doing OP things Ensemble mean also doing "mean" things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Should have kept my cold and dry call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago At least there‘s some signal across the models and their ensembles for 2/7-8, so that’s something. Otherwise, if that doesn’t come about, we’re looking pretty dry for the next two weeks. Hopefully that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Steinangle season is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ensemble mean also doing "mean" things. That’s not a good look, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Should have kept my cold and dry call. This cold is going to get old really quickly if that shit keeps up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Thank god we got smoked last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago My D-Drip bag is running dry however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Kitz Craver said: Thank god we got smoked last weekend So true. Would have been pure misery without that storm. Right now it’s just painful with all this cold around and nothing happening in the dead of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Kitz Craver said: My D-Drip bag is running dry however It basically took a wall of SW flow aloft slamming into the arctic tundra to get it to snow with any purpose here, but we still can't buy a phase in the vicinity of where we need it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This cold is going to get old really quickly if that shit keeps up. Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Pattern moving forward kind of looks like December again, but hopefully maybe a bit less pronounced on the WPO? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It basically took a wall of SW flow aloft slamming into the arctic tundra to get it to snow with any purpose here, but we still can't buy a phase in the vicinity of where we need it. The coastal evolutions are always flawed one way or another so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Violently agree I don't see it ending anytime soon...not to this extent, but still solidly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pattern moving forward kind of looks like December again, but hopefully maybe a bit less pronounced on the WPO? Back to snizzleshit T-1”s? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: The coastal evolutions are always flawed one way or another so far. It's because of the MJO IMHO.....if you notice, it always finds a way to minimize both residence and amplitude in phase 8...and even the few days it spends there, it's some non-comital BS like split-forcing. The fast flow is what it is, but it's not fast enough to prevent bombs for the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritimes. I do think CC plays a role, but it's more about the disproportionate warming in the West Pacific predisposing the convective forcing to MC positioning, while repelling it from the more favorable (relative to east coast cyclogenesis) dateline and African continent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's because of the MJO IMHO.....if you notice, it always finds a way to minimize both residence and amplitude in phase 8...and even the few days it spends there, it's some non-comital BS like split-forcing. The fast flow is what it is, but it's not fast enough to prevent bombs for the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritimes. I do think CC plays a role, but it's more about the disproportionate warming in the West Pacific predisposing the convective forcing to MC positioning, while repelling it from the dateline and African continent. Agree, that absolutely makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Then F it, just give me overrunning SWFE all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Kitz Craver said: Agree, that absolutely makes sense Frustrating, but all I can do is hit the LES belts when I retire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Frustrating, but all I can do is hit the LES belts when I retire. Yup 30” in 6hrs yesterday. Can you imagine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Kitz Craver said: Then F it, just give me overrunning SWFE all day We should be able to score some of that in Feb given the RNA and relaxed -WPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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