Is we back? February discussion thread

[mahk_webstah]

Looked at the euro AIFS this morning. February 5 is very suppressed but February 7 and eighth look kind of interesting although I’m not sure I understand the evolution. Northern Stream low drops down slips off the coast to our southeast while dropping precipitation on all of New England and then when it’s well offshore it hooks and curls up into southeast Canada. Seems like that could evolve into something really interesting possibly

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looked at the euro AIFS this morning. February 5 is very suppressed but February 7 and eighth look kind of interesting although I’m not sure I understand the evolution. Northern Stream low drops down slips off the coast to our southeast while dropping precipitation on all of New England and then when it’s well offshore it hooks and curls up into southeast Canada. Seems like that could evolve into something really interesting possibly

Those will all change by the time we get close…just like this current system did, the takeaway is at least something is there. Details TBD. 

[Kitz Craver]

Next potential on EURO is like a carbon copy of Sunday. Trough digging into the south and a non coherent low skirting off the Virginia/NC coast NE. Obviously can change, but I don’t like seeing the same exact look that screwed up our threat this weekend mucking up the next

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Next potential on EURO is like a carbon copy of Sunday. Trough digging into the south and a non coherent low skirting off the Virginia/NC coast NE. Obviously can change, but I don’t like seeing the same exact look that screwed up our threat this weekend mucking up the next

I figured something like that had gone down when I saw how few new posts there were.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ensembles are even worse.
Thoughts of my fantasy draft are beginning to seep in...

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ensembles are even worse.
Thoughts of my fantasy draft are beginning to seep in...

Really? I was hoping it was just OP doing OP things

[WinterWolf]

Long way off..but whatever. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Long way off..but whatever. 

Everyone gets how far off it is....what else is there to talk about, solutions that aren't modeled?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Really? I was hoping it was just OP doing OP things

Ensemble mean also doing "mean" things.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[CoastalWx]

Should have kept my cold and dry call. 

[JKEisMan]

At least there‘s some signal across the models and their ensembles for 2/7-8, so that’s something. Otherwise, if that doesn’t come about, we’re looking pretty dry for the next two weeks. Hopefully that changes.

[CoastalWx]

Steinangle season is upon us.

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ensemble mean also doing "mean" things.

That’s not a good look, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should have kept my cold and dry call. 

This cold is going to get old really quickly if that shit keeps up.

[Kitz Craver]

Thank god we got smoked last weekend 

[Kitz Craver]

My D-Drip bag is running dry however 

[JKEisMan]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Thank god we got smoked last weekend 

So true. Would have been pure misery without that storm. Right now it’s just painful with all this cold around and nothing happening in the dead of winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

My D-Drip bag is running dry however 

It basically took a wall of SW flow aloft slamming into the arctic tundra to get it to snow with any purpose here, but we still can't buy a phase in the vicinity of where we need it.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This cold is going to get old really quickly if that shit keeps up.

Violently agree

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pattern moving forward kind of looks like December again, but hopefully maybe a bit less pronounced on the WPO?

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It basically took a wall of SW flow aloft slamming into the arctic tundra to get it to snow with any purpose here, but we still can't buy a phase in the vicinity of where we need it.

The coastal evolutions are always flawed one way or another so far. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Violently agree

I don't see it ending anytime soon...not to this extent, but still solidly below average.

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pattern moving forward kind of looks like December again, but hopefully maybe a bit less pronounced on the WPO?

Back to snizzleshit T-1”s? Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

The coastal evolutions are always flawed one way or another so far. 

It's because of the MJO IMHO.....if you notice, it always finds a way to minimize both residence and amplitude in phase 8...and even the few days it spends there, it's some non-comital BS like split-forcing. The fast flow is what it is, but it's not fast enough to prevent bombs for the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritimes. I do think CC plays a role, but it's more about the disproportionate warming in the West Pacific predisposing the convective forcing to MC positioning, while repelling it from the more favorable (relative to east coast cyclogenesis) dateline and African continent. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's because of the MJO IMHO.....if you notice, it always finds a way to minimize both residence and amplitude in phase 8...and even the few days it spends there, it's some non-comital BS like split-forcing. The fast flow is what it is, but it's not fast enough to prevent bombs for the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritimes. I do think CC plays a role, but it's more about the disproportionate warming in the West Pacific predisposing the convective forcing to MC positioning, while repelling it from the dateline and African continent. 

Agree, that absolutely makes sense 

[Kitz Craver]

Then F it, just give me overrunning SWFE all day 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Agree, that absolutely makes sense 

Frustrating, but all I can do is hit the LES belts when I retire.

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Frustrating, but all I can do is hit the LES belts when I retire.

Yup 30” in 6hrs yesterday. Can you imagine?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Then F it, just give me overrunning SWFE all day 

We should be able to score some of that in Feb given the RNA and relaxed -WPO.