1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[GBOVolz]

I will also credit the WVLT met, as he said expect snow showers in the extreme cold that isn't showing up on models. 
This will be one of those situations where the dgz is probably around 2500 feet and up so snow will fall and it will seem to come from nothing on radar. 

Which high res mods use the radar to help predict precipitation? Just wondering if snow under the radar gets missed by the HRRR and potentially other mods.


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[John1122]

3 minutes ago, bearman said:

Where did you get these graphics from?  I can not find them anywhere?

They were made available to emergency management offices. 

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Which high res mods use the radar to help predict precipitation? Just wondering if snow under the radar gets missed by the HRRR and potentially other mods.


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I believe the HRRR and RAP do, possibly the Rufus and FV3 too. 

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is slightly down with totals. 

Basically today the low end models have went up, the high end have came down, and they are meeting in the middle. 

Yeah, looks like it edged South a tad as well.

[Tucker1027]

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[GBOVolz]

I enjoy looking at Mt Leconte’s NWS forecast…




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[GBOVolz]

SREF plums at TYS went from 2ish inches from 9z to 4ish inches at 15z


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[John1122]

The AI GFS has more precip futher west than the Op GFS, but less precip along the mountain counties than the Op GFS. 

[GBOVolz]

The AI GFS has more precip futher west than the Op GFS, but less precip along the mountain counties than the Op GFS. 

Spreading the wealth


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[John1122]

Now WVLT says my area will get a dusting. So I take back everything positive I said about him. 

[GBOVolz]

The AI GFS has more precip futher west than the Op GFS, but less precip along the mountain counties than the Op GFS. 

What’s the GFS hybrid AI? This is not ratioed…




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[GBOVolz]

Now WVLT says my area will get a dusting. So I take back everything positive I said about him. 

Is it possible for you to get extra lift from a E/SE wind?


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[John1122]

8 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

What’s the GFS hybrid AI? This is not ratioed…




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That looks like an AI version of the GFS ensemble. 

[John1122]

6 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Is it possible for you to get extra lift from a E/SE wind?


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It's possible, there's a mountain to my SE that rises about 900 feet above me. 

[Daniel Boone]

24 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The AI GFS has more precip futher west than the Op GFS, but less precip along the mountain counties than the Op GFS. 

Hopefully it'll outperform it's older brother.

[Hurricaneguy]

Forum is a little slower than I thought. Everyone still locking in I hope? 

[Math/Met]

1 minute ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Forum is a little slower than I thought. Everyone still locking in I hope? 

Crazy things can happen, but Greene Co is in a pretty good spot right now.

[John1122]

The Euro looks good. Headed to a basketball game. No school but the tournament rolls on. 

[ladyjmayo]

1 hour ago, bearman said:

Where did you get these graphics from?  I can not find them anywhere?

 

[*Flash*]

17 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Forum is a little slower than I thought. Everyone still locking in I hope? 

I mean, it’s an east TN special. The threat is far from forum wide. 

[GBOVolz]

Well… wasn’t expecting this…still going conservative until tomorrow morning i guess




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[bearman]

23 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Forum is a little slower than I thought. Everyone still locking in I hope? 

I think we all have been watching this rodeo for quite a while and we all know the things that can go right anf wrong and there is just so much you can say.

[bearman]

2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Well… wasn’t expecting this…still going conservative until tomorrow morning i guess




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Case in point, however they always do this unless they don't.  As we all know we live in days that nothing makes much sense.

[John1122]

The snow map MRX released is the 18z NBM. It doesn't have today's 06z, 12z, or 18z Euro in it. It has the 0z data. 

[GBOVolz]

Case in point, however they always do this unless they don't.  As we all know we live in days that nothing makes much sense.

At 20/1, i gotta think we get more than .1 tenth of an inch of liquid.


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[bearman]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The snow map MRX released is the 18z NBM. It doesn't have today's 06z, 12z, or 18z Euro in it. It has the 0z data. 

Then why put it out?  Is this because of their budget cuts?  Everything runs late?

[Weatheriscool]

30 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Forum is a little slower than I thought. Everyone still locking in I hope? 

This system primarily looks to be a East TN system so I am out

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The snow map MRX released is the 18z NBM. It doesn't have today's 06z, 12z, or 18z Euro in it. It has the 0z data. 

Yeah. 

[GBOVolz]

Forum is a little slower than I thought. Everyone still locking in I hope? 

Well, we are in that no man’s land with the models and anticipating the start of this. pretty much it is what it is at this point and there’s not gonna be much mod change so we’re in a holding pattern.


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[Hurricaneguy]

Anyone got the EastTN weatherbell or pivotal 18z euro snowfall?