February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[eduggs]

The 18z EPS-AIFS are very snowy, which is suspicious. A few of the individuals continue to show a high end snowstorm, which skews the mean, but even the median is decent for snow. It's strange considering how far off most guidance looks in the upper levels from supporting a coastal SLP. It looks like there is a lot of sensitivity with respect to phasing of the northern stream. And a small amount of phasing could lead to a significant surface response.

[nycsnow]

lol keeps going south…. Can’t even get rain. What a crappy pattern

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z EPS-AIFS are very snowy, which is suspicious. A few of the individuals continue to show a high end snowstorm, which skews the mean, but even the median is decent for snow. It's strange considering how far off most guidance looks in the upper levels from supporting a coastal SLP. It looks like there is a lot of sensitivity with respect to phasing of the northern stream. And a small amount of phasing could lead to a significant surface response.

Storm is done

Euro is a terrible model

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

I had snow on the ground every day of March 2015.

[Prue11]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

Dude what? March 2015 was a legit winter month the whole month here on Long Island. Snow on the ground almost every day of the month and some decent events too 
 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

Terrible post 

2010-2011 wasn't a below normal winter. Even 2015 wasn't bad.

You must be related to snowman19.