2026 Foothills thread

[BooneWX]

GEFS is west even more. Webb says he doesn’t buy any eastern NC solution.

[wncsnow]

I'm kinda torn on it. 18Z EPS looks like crap and didn't trend west like I hoped. The setup does scream NW trend but last year it didn't happen

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

I'm kinda torn on it. 18Z EPS looks like crap and didn't trend west like I hoped. The setup does scream NW trend but last year it didn't happen

I feel like last years setup was super screwed because we watched an energy transfer happen. This one shouldn’t have that problem and is probably going to be more prone to a shift west, especially with heights rising over the Atlantic.

[BooneWX]

If I was down east, I’d be really worried about cold air advection since there’s no anchored high in place. Idk if there’s any group on this website that could describe the pain of waiting for cold to slip over the mountains more than us. 

[SnowDawg]

Plenty of other Mets disagreeing with Webb on that though. NW trend is possible for sure, but I’m not sure how much given the overall progressiveness of the pattern, and some of us need a lot. Seeing 0 members with qpf at my location was a gut check. 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Plenty of other Mets disagreeing with Webb on that though. NW trend is possible for sure, but I’m not sure how much given the overall progressiveness of the pattern, and some of us need a lot. Seeing 0 members with qpf at my location was a gut check. 

And by no means am I disagreeing. I do think, just looking at the upper levels, that trough orientation, rising heights to the east and waa overrunning cold air with an upslope component makes me optimistic for at least western Nc. Idk if it’s as much that I think it trends nw with time as I think we’re likely to see a much more expansive precip shield when all is said and done.

[SnowDawg]

38 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

And by no means am I disagreeing. I do think, just looking at the upper levels, that trough orientation, rising heights to the east and waa overrunning cold air with an upslope component makes me optimistic for at least western Nc. Idk if it’s as much that I think it trends nw with time as I think we’re likely to see a much more expansive precip shield when all is said and done.

Yeah I don’t actually even disagree with this but these last 4 winters has zapped my ability to have any optimism I think. 

[strongwxnc]

Good morning NAM!


.

[BooneWX]

I really don’t think moisture is going to be our issue. It’s hilarious to see temps become the problem but decent rates and the surface being at 31-32 would do the trick. Globals aren’t going to handle surface cold very well either, so I’d lean on shaving 1-2° off of that. 

[WNC_Fort]

If I learned anything last January, I’m not going to think it’s snowing until it’s accumulating in front of my eyes

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

If I learned anything last January, I’m not going to think it’s snowing until it’s accumulating in front of my eyes

I don't see this happening unless the Euro and EPS start making big shifts at 12Z. I almost guarantee the GFS will be east/weaker coming up. It already started at 6z

[wncsnow]

And the worst part is, the long range isn't inspiring for snow. Another snowless winter is on the cards if we strike out again 

[wncsnow]

And there is it. GFS folding like a cheap chair

[WNC_Fort]

lol. Guys. I can’t live here anymore

[strongwxnc]

It was a decent 20ish hours of digital viewing. 

Back to regular schedule BS.

 

[strongwxnc]

Hug the 12 NAM for now LOL

this is GSP

 

260118/0700Z  67  34005KT  38.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

260118/0800Z  68  35009KT  36.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

260118/0900Z  69  34008KT  34.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

260118/1000Z  70  35006KT  33.0F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   28| 66|  7

260118/1100Z  71  01005KT  33.0F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05   68| 18| 14

260118/1200Z  72  01006KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07   88|  0| 12

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

260118/1300Z  73  01007KT  32.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    3:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0

260118/1400Z  74  01008KT  31.7F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    4:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0

260118/1500Z  75  01007KT  30.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049    6:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0

260118/1600Z  76  01008KT  30.1F  SNOW   11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062    8:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0

260118/1700Z  77  01008KT  29.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060    8:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0

260118/1800Z  78  36007KT  30.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    7:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

260118/1900Z  79  01006KT  30.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    8:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0

260118/2000Z  80  01007KT  30.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    8:1|  2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0

 

[calculus1]

Including this winter, I am averaging 1.75 inches of snowfall over the last seven (!) winters. My ten-year mean in my signature does not yet count this winter and is heavily influenced by those years at the beginning of the ten-year period.

Fortunately, I have all those traces to make it better...

[WNC_Fort]

Maybe that 2009 through 2018 time period just spoiled me. A blip here or there but annually we’d get solid events. Now we have to beg and plead for an inch. And still nothing.

[BooneWX]

Well.

[BooneWX]

Exhausting living here

[strongwxnc]

Maybe that 2009 through 2018 time period just spoiled me. A blip here or there but annually we’d get solid events. Now we have to beg and plead for an inch. And still nothing.

Been here since birth in 79.
Been chasing 1988 since.
Some good years for sure.


.

[wncsnow]

1990-1993 was bleak until the blizzard, 1997-2000 was bad, 2006-2009 had very few events and 2012 and 2013 had basically nothing.

With that being said the period between January 2019 until January 2026 is the longest, least snowy period I can find. 7 years with 1 winter storm warning here. 7 years with only 4 small events totals. 7 years with 16 inches of snow total. 2.3 inches per year.