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Texas 2026 Discussion/Observations


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About 20K people in ETX still remain without power tonight. Since Saturday night.

Namely, Shelby & Nacogdoches counties, that have been "Ground Zero" for this 2026 ETX major ice storm.

The outages jumped from 30K (early this morning), back up to near 40K. But those additional 9K outages further south in Jasper county (and east) earlier today may have been unrelated.

IMG_9619.thumb.jpeg.1299f203d85787814e7267f38e932183.jpeg

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11 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

About 20K people in ETX still remain without power tonight. Since Saturday night.

Namely, Shelby & Nacogdoches counties, that have been "Ground Zero" for this 2026 ETX major ice storm.

The outages jumped from 30K (early this morning), back up to near 40K. But those additional 9K outages further south in Jasper county (and east) earlier today may have been unrelated.

My wife's family in Shelby Co is still without power. Been a long week over there.

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9 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

My wife's family in Shelby Co is still without power. Been a long week over there.

I can only imagine how tough it is to stay comfortably warm. Especially when it goes on for days with the cold still in place in the state all this week. I was without power for only 2 days after hurricane Harvey (2017), and even that wasn't too comfortable either without A/C.

11 K people still look to remain without power in ETX tonight.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Looks a little interesting this evening with the ongoing severe risk and some more discrete clusters ongoing in S-SETX coastal region on the southern extent of the frontal convective line moving through ETX. Even outflow boundaries alone are producing strong gusts to 50+ mph in STX.

Stronger support for lift aloft digging a bit further south in the state than usual (per Euro had projected all week) with the incoming SS trough. And this may also be an indication that ENSO has finally started its transition away from LN and hopefully toward the advertised warm/EN phase in the coming months. Which would likely make the upcoming severe season more interesting with the SS jet anchoring further south.

Probably the bigger story today is rainfall amounts especially in NTX over 2" just in the past 24 hours with some flash flood alerts. Especially, considering we're currently in the driest month of the year. Very needed since over 90% of the entire state was already in some kind of ongoing drought status looking at U.S. drought monitor data on February 3rd.

 

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possible tornado(es) near Houston. This one was close to the radar at League City

Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CST FOR
GALVESTON...EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 704 PM CST, a severe squall line capable of producing both
tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was located along a
line extending from League City to near Liverpool, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

XcEykU2.jpeg

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Decent rainfall totals with the Friday - Saturday frontal system over the state, for February (being the driest month of the year).

IMG_9977.thumb.png.71c22872d7c184bd1a5a95c5c108ced0.png

This should make some kind of impact on the drought coverage on this week's drought monitor update (that was nearing 100% coverage over the entire state).

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX

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  • 2 weeks later...

With the lack of sweeping cold fronts through early next week and subtropical ridging moving off to the Eastern US, things are already looking very interesting for a multi-day springlike (April/May type) convective pattern over the state with multiple MCSs or MCCs certainly possible. Starting later this upcoming week, to start March.

Ensemble runs during the past week or so have been trending on higher rainfall amounts. Especially over CTX/NTX, up to 5 inches (even higher). Which is still way ahead of schedule for spring, just now entering March. So flash & river flooding will definitely be possible. Esp. with all the drought conditions of late.

MJO is prog to head back into the latter phases with a new wave propagating through the Pacific in the coming week or so. Which will likely provide rainfall insurance. Esp. over Eastern half of state.

Severe threat is bound to exist with this abnormal UL pattern setup with multiple, stronger shortwaves tracking through the state into next week. Especially near the 10th. Both Euro and GFS models & ensembles have also more or less, been keeping up on (increasing) shear values over the state. And even more persistent, steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C).

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Quote

703 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 830 PM CST.

* At 703 PM CST, emergency management reported road closures and 
  ongoing water rescues due to thunderstorms producing heavy rain 
  across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have 
  fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast. 
  Flash flooding is ongoing.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

 

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DFW radar storm totals up near 8" just southeast of the metro. Just in the past couple hours.

Still looks very convectively interesting heading into the weekend and early next week with a meandering front and cutoff Low setting up out west over Baja region. Ensembles starting to trend on a faster, but stronger/deeper track into the state.

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