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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yes exactly. We were initially rooting for a phase out west quick but then it became too quick and too far west.

I wouldn't have brought that analysis up here if I didnt think it had merit. 

 

I'm just making sure I remember correctly, lol. It's been a long week. Keeps me interested for sure 

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Just finished shoveling. Here in S. Arlington we got about 6–8 inches. Everyone said you should shovel while the sleet was still coming down. I didn’t — and honestly, it wasn’t too bad.

The bottom layer of snow was powdery but semi‑compacted. The top layer, though, was about 4 inches of really dense, compacted sleet. Sometimes I’d break off long sheets of it with the other side of the shovel. It was heavy, but if I had started shoveling midday, all I would’ve had tonight was that solid sleet layer. The early snow actually helped me move the top crust.

If I had shoveled midday, would it have glazed over and needed one of those flat ice spades? I think so, but who knows.

Anyway, that’s my experience — could be wrong.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Considering it didn’t really have a storm last run, this is an acceptable amount of progress. Would be a pretty annoying final outcome, though image.thumb.png.d393e3669e5a0e3b14706a0e294f2585.png
 

We have 6 days to turn this into a perfect storm, slider, cutter, etc. Hopefully the Euro AI latches onto a favorable solution and stays there.

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From Mike Masco.. respected TV met 

 

FWIW..

 

REPEAT PERFORMANCE NEXT WEEKEND??

 

I’ll say this — the EURO AI Ensembles have been doing an excellent job lately identifying early storm signals well ahead of time.

 

And once again, I’m seeing some familiar ingredients showing up…

 

• Ridging building over the West

• Upstream blocking developing

• A favorable 50–50 low setup

• Storm track guidance beginning to align

 

That combination holds some potential for maybe another next weekend storm! 

 

It’s early — and plenty can still change — but this is the type of large-scale pattern that supports repeat winter events in the Northeast.

 

When the pattern starts whispering this loudly a week out, it’s worth paying attention.

 

More on this tonight.

 

See you at 10pm on PIX11 News

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