January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yes exactly. We were initially rooting for a phase out west quick but then it became too quick and too far west.

I wouldn't have brought that analysis up here if I didnt think it had merit. 

 

I'm just making sure I remember correctly, lol. It's been a long week. Keeps me interested for sure 

[stormtracker]

Really curious what the asking is gonna do in like 45 mins

[bncho]

another long week of tracking 

[winter_warlock]

33 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

again, given seasonal trends, this is not a bad place to be.

 

 

but I'm also closer to the coast and I do well in Nina coastal scrapers...

I agree!!!

[winter_warlock]

28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

967

967!!! Jesus

[bncho]

GEFS more NW

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

GEFS more NW

DC/Balt in the bullseye already , 0z vs 18z GEFS down below

 

 

[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

DC/Balt in the bullseye already , 0z vs 18z GEFS down below

 

 

Wouldn't exactly call that the bullseye

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

DC/Balt in the bullseye already , 0z vs 18z GEFS down below

 

 

The slight double maxima over dc and the Delmarva makes me wonder if there are two main camps in the ensemble members 

[NorthArlington101]

Unsurprisingly, some big hits in the GEFS. 6/30 pretty good. 1/30 meh. Rest say no thanks for us at least - some OBX winners. But big jump from previous runs. 
 

[coolio]

Just finished shoveling. Here in S. Arlington we got about 6–8 inches. Everyone said you should shovel while the sleet was still coming down. I didn’t — and honestly, it wasn’t too bad.

The bottom layer of snow was powdery but semi‑compacted. The top layer, though, was about 4 inches of really dense, compacted sleet. Sometimes I’d break off long sheets of it with the other side of the shovel. It was heavy, but if I had started shoveling midday, all I would’ve had tonight was that solid sleet layer. The early snow actually helped me move the top crust.

If I had shoveled midday, would it have glazed over and needed one of those flat ice spades? I think so, but who knows.

Anyway, that’s my experience — could be wrong.

[bncho]

Interesting h5 for the Euro AI

[bncho]

More diggy than 18z

[bncho]

OH BABY EURO AI!!!!

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, bncho said:

OH BABY EURO AI!!!!

I think it’s gonna go a little late for us. But much better and closer. 

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I think it’s gonna go a little late for us. But much better and closer. 

yea bobby chill got 5" 10:1, nc/va border got 8" 10:1

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

yea bobby chill got 5" 10:1, nc/va border got 8" 10:1

Considering it didn’t really have a storm last run, this is an acceptable amount of progress. Would be a pretty annoying final outcome, though (not for our Eastern Shore folks though)

 

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Considering it didn’t really have a storm last run, this is an acceptable amount of progress. Would be a pretty annoying final outcome, though 
 

We have 6 days to turn this into a perfect storm, slider, cutter, etc. Hopefully the Euro AI latches onto a favorable solution and stays there.

[winter_warlock]

From Mike Masco.. respected TV met 

 

FWIW..

 

REPEAT PERFORMANCE NEXT WEEKEND??

 

I’ll say this — the EURO AI Ensembles have been doing an excellent job lately identifying early storm signals well ahead of time.

 

And once again, I’m seeing some familiar ingredients showing up…

 

• Ridging building over the West

• Upstream blocking developing

• A favorable 50–50 low setup

• Storm track guidance beginning to align

 

That combination holds some potential for maybe another next weekend storm! 

 

It’s early — and plenty can still change — but this is the type of large-scale pattern that supports repeat winter events in the Northeast.

 

When the pattern starts whispering this loudly a week out, it’s worth paying attention.

 

More on this tonight.

 

See you at 10pm on PIX11 News

[Nomz]

Boston wins again on 00z euro aifs

[wxmeddler]

Positive signs thus far.

[stormtracker]

out to 126...very encouraging so far

[stormtracker]

Not quite a folks..but it's a hit

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Folks

like, uppercase folks? or just lowercase folks?

[bncho]

what the catfish 

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

like, uppercase folks? or just lowercase folks?

lowercase...kinda jumped the gun...but it's a hit

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

what the catfish 

At least I posted the right maps tho....

[stormtracker]

Actually...it's a rather large hit

[stormtracker]

Pinwheels...backwards and then forward again..wtf

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lowercase...kinda jumped the gun...but it's a hit

Ah, you see, this is where you and I differ in PBP. I would NEVER jump the gun.